Southeastern Division

This is the second part of my series of divisional previews of the NBA. The Southeast Division of the NBA could turn into a swamp of mediocrity. 2008 division champ Orlando won 52 games with a win expectancy of 56. While another 50 wins from Orlando is certainly a possibility, I would not be the least bit surprised to find the winner of the division barely crossing 41 wins. Orlando could be due for a regression. Washington could be due another second place finish in the division and quick trip out of the first round of the playoffs. The rest of the division is three teams that could surprise the league, either positively or negatively.

Orlando Magic
Last year could be just the beginning for this franchise. Center Dwight Howard had the best year of his young career and should keep improving for at least a few more years. When you throw an MVP caliber player out there every night, it would be very difficult to miss the playoffs. As well, last year’s free agent prize Rashard Lewis should be due for a return to his previous career norms in production. Jameer Nelson is likewise a candidate for return to form. This year’s free agent, Mikael Pietrus, might provide the combined defense and perimeter shooting they need from the shooting guard position.

While there is a lot that could go right for this team, I see too much that could go wrong. The return of Tony Battie is being counted on to provide Howard much needed help on the boards and interior defense. That will not be enough. Hedo Turkoglu is coming off a decent career year, including many clutch performances, that is not likely to be improved upon or even matched. While he probably will not drop off a cliff, it would be a shock if he does not regress. Lewis, while certainly likely to rebound in performance, will not necessarily return to the prior levels of his career. Even if he does, he and Turkoglu are still near replicas of each other that should not be on the court simultaneously. Nelson and Pietrus will likely be the worst starting backcourt of any team in the playoffs, assuming that both are starting this season.

Best Case Scenario: Howard improves on an MVP worthy season; Lewis earns part of his max deal; Turkoglu is dealt for some much needed inside help; Pietrus in a defined position finally lives up to his hype; Nelson comes out strong; 60 wins and a trip to the conference finals.

Worst Case Scenario: Howard goes down with an injury; Lewis and Turkoglu see a lot of time on the floor together at similar production levels; Pietrus and Nelson both have mediocre seasons; 20 wins and hope to find help for Howard in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Howard puts together another near MVP worthy performance; Lewis has a rebound season; Turkoglu is dealt for something, no guarantees it is useful; the back court is a drags down the quality of the team; 47 wins, another division championship, and a quick out in the first round.

Washington Wizards
Where exactly is this franchise headed? I touched upon this in an earlier post, but I just do not understand why they paid so much to keep this squad together. Over the last four seasons, they have finished with 45, 42, 41, and 43 wins. The only time they won a playoff series, it was against a Bulls team missing Eddy Curry and Luol Deng. They have committed a great deal of money to Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison to maintain mediocrity.

Last year was an intriguing one for the squad. With Arenas sidelined for most of the season with an injury, they slowed down the pace and actually played defense for the first half of the season. As the year went on, though, they lost most of that defensive identity and again finished in the lower third of the league. Jamison and Caron Butler were helped on the offensive end by a strong year from Brendan Haywood. With a late season return of Arenas derailed by aggravation of his previous injury, the team once again bowed out before getting 4 wins in the playoffs.

Arenas is again due to miss part of the season to injury, though this time it should only be a month. When he returns, coach Eddie Jordan will have his work cut out for him. Will the Wizards return to the slower pace of last season or will Arenas force them to once again play fast? Will they be able to find a consistent defensive effort for the season? Can any of the role players make a bigger contribution?

Best Case Scenario: Arenas comes back strong from his injury and fits in well with what the rest of the team is doing; Butler, Jamison, and Haywood repeat last year’s production; Andrew Blacthe and another of their youngsters step up; team returns to top of NBA in offensive efficiency; 50 wins and a run at the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: Arenas plays sparingly and does not fit in with the rest of the team when he does; defensive struggles continue; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; Butler or Jamison see a drop off in production; the supporting cast remains weak; 30 wins and a resounding wake up call to break this team up.

My Shot in the Dark: Arenas does not mesh with last year’s philosophy forcing the team to adjust to him; Butler repeats last year performance as Jamison begins his decline; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; mediocre offense and terrible defense; 40 wins and battling for the last playoff spot.

Charlotte Bobcats
This team has seemingly been on the rise for the last couple years. With the addition of Larry Brown as coach, they could finally be ready to make the organization’s first trip to the playoffs. Of course, many assumed the same thing about last year’s addition of Jason Richardson. Instead, they suffered through another losing season with only 32 victories.

The core of Richardson, Gerald Wallace, and Emeka Okafor is a very solid start. Still, none of them are exactly locks for the All Star game. After that, this roster is filled with too many players with bad injury histories, not enough experience, or both. Of course, Wallace is one of those who cannot seam to stay healthy and Okafor has not been the epitome of endurance either. Nazr Mohammed provides a nice, veteran complement at center. Who else on this team is capable of helping? Recent lottery picks Raymond Felton, Sean May, and Adam Morrison have failed to show they can when they are actually on the court. Rookie D.J. Augustin could provide some life. Too bad Brown does not like young point guards. It is hard to see any reason for hope.

That is where Brown comes in. This man has built a great reputation off of quickly turning around basketball teams. While he is best known for working with veteran squads, I think his time as coach of the 76ers shows he can handle young squads as well. He will have this team playing strong defense. With Mohammed and Okafor in the front court, it is hard to imagine them finishing worse than average in defensive efficiency. The bigger questions will be who can provide what on the offensive end. Richardson will be leant upon greatly. This team needs one of May, Felton, and Morrison to come through if they want to make the playoffs. They need two of them if they want to really make some noise. There is some reason for hope and many reasons for doubt right now.

Best Case Scenario: Richardson and Okafor have All Star worthy seasons; Wallace plays at least 65 games; May and Felton provide some offensive depth; Brown makes this a top 5 defensive squad; 45 wins and first trip to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Richardson or Okafor join Wallace on the IR for too much of the season; all of the draft busts keep in line with career norms; a year away from coaching somehow causes Brown to lose his touch; 25 wins and back to wasting lottery picks.

My Shot in the Dark: Brown turns this into a top 10 defensive squad; Richardson has an All Star worthy season; Okafor and Wallace have solid years; on of the draft bust provides league average production; 37 wins and another year watching the playoffs from home.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are likely to be the team in the East most widely considered due for a collective breakout. With a roster filled with several young former lottery picks, the team seemingly made its first step last season by making the playoffs. As the eight seed, they were expected to quickly roll over in four games to the Boston Celtics. Things were going to script after two games with Atlanta being blown out twice.

As the series shifted to Atlanta, the series began to get interesting. With two very close home victories in their belt, the Hawks returned to Boston for pivotal Game 5 only to be blown out once more. As a credit to this team and coach Mike Woodson, they refused to back down in Game 6, again pulling out a close victory at home. The series and their season would be finished in Game 7 with yet another blowout loss.

Many took this series as a sign of hope for the future. While beating the eventual champs three times in a playoff series is an impressive feat, the series looked a lot closer than it was. The Hawks wins were by 9, 5, and 3 points. Their losses were by 23, 19, 25, and 34 points. There is certainly much road to be traveled by this organization before it can be considered a contender.

Still, there were many positives from last season. While team leader Joe Johnson had a slip in production, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams all had promising seasons. Al Horford nearly stole Rookie of the Year from Kevin Durant with an admirable performance of his own as an undersized center with no true power forward to help him out. The acquisition of Mike Bibby cost the team little in terms of assets and should hopefully help to answer the team’s seemingly ever present point guard problem. As well, a full season of Bibby at his best will especially be needed to help replace the production lost when Childress left for Europe. The question remains if Bibby’s best was left in Sacramento. Still, the roster overall is very young and another trip to the playoffs should not be out of the question.

Best Case Scenario: Johnson and Smith have All Star caliber seasons; Williams and Horford add on to the progress from last season; a full season with a contender rejuvenates Bibby; get some help from the bench; 47 wins and a fist round ouster that lasts another 7 games.

Worst Case Scenario: Johnson declines again; Smith gets too comfortable with his big contract; Williams and Horford stagnate; Bibby confirms his best days are well behind him; 30 wins and back to the drawing board.

My Shot in the Dark: Johnson and Smith both player closer to where they were in 06-07; Horford takes a step forward in his second year; Williams stays about where he was; Bibby provides okay production offensively but gives everything back on the defensive side; 35 wins and back to the lottery.

Miami Heat
After a brief detour that led to a title, the Heat are back to where they were when they initially drafted Dwayne Wade. Coming of consecutive losing seasons after losing Alonzo Mourning to a kidney disease, the Heat drafted Wade onto a team that did not match Pat Riley’s ideal. It was a team with some good young pieces that appeared best suited for an up tempo style. Lamar Odom and Caron Butler appeared to be destined as Wade’s running mates. This was far from the defensive minded, overly physical squads Riley had put together for the Heat and the Knicks before then. Fittingly, the head coaching job had been handed over to one of his disciples who led a surprising team to 42 wins and a trip to the playoffs.

With Shaquille O’Neal suddenly available, Riley moved the franchise another direction, getting older and slower overnight. The franchise would pay the price for the moves that brought home the championship. Forty-four wins and a sweep out of the first round seemed to indicate moves were needed. Only touch ups would be made. With Wad injured much of the year and O’Neal proving too old, out of shape, and ineffective, the Heat struggled with a roster of players who all seemed better off in the NBA Developmental League.

A mid-season trade of Shaq for Shawn Marion and a few others would do little to curb the losing of last season. That deal, though, has helped the team move back to the identity of young and athletic. With little hope for title contention, Riley has again handed the head coaching gig to one of his assistants. Eric Spoelestra will certainly have his work cut out for him.

Wade and Marion make for a fantastic one-two punch. As well, the Heat were fortunate enough to land the second pick in the draft, which they used on forward Michael Beasley. Beyond that, the roster is still largely comprised of players who seem they should only be playing significant minutes in the D-League. Wade and Beasley should provide plenty of points between them with Marion as a nice offensive complement. Questions abound as to defense, rebounding, and the quality of the bench. While the future should be bright with the building blocks they have, it is hard to see how well they will overcome their shortcomings this season.

Best Case Scenario: Wade takes home MVP with Beasley the Rookie of the Year and Marion happy to play the third banana; two players step up as legitimate complements to round out the starting five; 50 wins, division title, and a run into the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Wade cannot shake the injuries that have haunted him the last couple seasons; Beasley lives up to the concerns over his mental commitment on and off the court; Marion begins a rapid decline; no one on the roster is able to step up; 15 wins again and back to the top of the draft.

My Shot in the Dark: Wade plays the majority of the season at MVP level; Beasley provides enough scoring to run away with the RoY; Marion begrudgingly fills in as the third banana; little else is provided by the rest of the roster; 35 wins and the first step towards being great in the future.