Central Division

Detroit Pistons
The king is dead, long live the king. That expression has never made much sense to me, but it seems to fit this organization quite well. This team is still incredibly talented and a sure bet for 50 wins and a division crown. Their days as title contenders, though, appear to be over.

After having made their fifth consecutive trip to at least the Eastern Conference Finals only to fall short for the third time, the Pistons entered last season vowing to spread out the minutes across the roster. While the goal was to save up their four core players for another playoff run, greater benefits emerged with development of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiel, and Amir Johnson.

Alas, the originally intended benefit never came to fruition as the Pistons fell to the Celtics in 6 games, making it three consecutive semi-final round losses. Instead of praising the team for being good enough to reach the conference finals six years in a row, many started looking hard for the flaws that resulted in them losing four of those series. Sadly, the wrong flaws were being looked at. Most, it seemed, assumed that the Pistons lacked some sort of internal fortitude to make it back to the Finals. The more obvious explanation, though, is that they were just eliminated by better teams. With the exception of their loss to the Cavs in 2007, the case can certainly be made that the team got as far as they should have and the years they got further were due more to luck. Their championship season of 2004 certainly benefited from having mass internal conflict within the far superior Lakers. In 2005, they were fortunate to beat the Heat in seven games as they were down three games to two when an injury kept Dwayne Wade out of game six.

Entering this offseason, it is possible that Joe Dumars recognized the one thing all the teams the Pistons lost to in the playoffs had in common: superstar talent. Much was made of the Pistons championship for they were a team comprised of several All Star caliber players but no one who would be MVP worthy. Such a model has rarely worked in the NBA and the Pistons are proving to be a great case study as to why. Their playoff losses have come to teams with those players who are able to take over large chunks of games in various ways with their immense talent and skill. While Chauncey Billups was able to perform at such a level in the 2004 playoffs, no one else has been able to step up like that since.

Dumars made it publicly known that he was looking to move some of those core, All Star players for a chance at one of the few, true superstars in the league. Rumors had him seeking to acquire Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Unfortunately, Dumars was unable to find any proper fits. So, the same cast of characters from last season returns for another run. The core four of Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace have all gotten another year older and likely a little worse. The youngsters sit in the wings, waiting for their time to take over. Many of the faces have changed over the last couple years, but the ending should look strikingly familiar.

Best Case Scenario: The Big 4 keep chugging along with All Star performances; Stuckey, Maxiel, and Johnson make the most of their time on the court with further progress; new coach Michael Curry reinvigorates the roster to over 60 wins and the team gets some those breaks in the playoffs they got in 2004 and 2005.

Worst Case Scenario: Frustrated veterans prove too much for a rookie head coach with internal strife leading to Dumars having to blow up much of the roster getting little back in return; about 42 wins and a low seed in the playoffs.

My Shot in the Dark: Curry continues with a nice blend of the veterans and youngsters; natural declines by the veterans is offset by natural improvement by the youngsters; 55 wins and a fourth consecutive loss in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Chicago Bulls
This team has changed so much, yet in the end, not at all. While expectations were high coming into last season after a 49 win season and a sweep of the Heat, the young team crumpled under trade rumors and disharmony in the locker room. Coach Scott Skiles was the first to go after admitting he had quit on the team because it seemed they had quit on him. Unfortunately, his dismissal lost any chance of effectiveness when he was replaced by assistant Jim Boylan. Referred to as “a nicer Skiles” by many players, he simply prolonged the issues of not developing younger players while allowing veterans too much of a say in how the team was run.

Then, free agent bust Ben Wallace was shipped out of town with veteran leaders Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin. Coming back were intriguing veterans Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden. While many saw this trade as a crap swap, there was hope that Hughes and Gooden could both return to previous performance levels. While Gooden confirmed some reason for hope, Hughes proved to be just as finished as a contributor as Wallace before him. Worst though, Hughes clogged up an already deep backcourt taking minutes from Ben Gordon and Thabo Sefolosha.

Despite all of this, the Bulls were battling for a playoff spot all the way to the end of the season. Fortunately for them, they fell in the lottery and made best of their 1.7% chance of getting the first pick. Chicago native point guard Derrick Rose was the pick.

Another rookie will have a large impact on the team in head coach Vinny DelNegro. Best known for his role as the starting shooting guard for the Spurs first championship, DelNegro came from the Phoenix Suns front office. Armed with long time veteran coaches Bernie Bickerstaff and Del Harris, DelNegro vowed to bring the best of his Spurs and Suns experiences to the Bulls: intense defense teamed with an up tempo offense.

The offseason was not limited to those acquisitions. Luol Deng was locked into a six year deal. A skilled small forward who specializes in working without the ball, Deng will be a great piece to build around the next few years though likely to never be “the man.” Unfortunately, his draft mate Ben Gordon was unable to secure his own long term deal. With the Bulls refusing to offer a contract that would take them over the luxury tax threshold, Gordon settled for the Qualifying Offer. Failing to get Gordon under contract, John Paxson refused to make any future moves without having future cost certainty. Still, numerous major pieces remain from that 49 win team from two seasons ago. At the same time, Rose is the only addition to a squad that lost 49 games last season.
Best Case Scenario: Rose performs at a Rookie of the Year level; Deng’s game steps up with his pay rate; Gordon gets vast majority of minutes at SG proving he is worthy of an eight figure annual salary; Tyrus Thomas makes a significant leap forward; defense returns to top 10 in efficiency; 47 wins and a trip to the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Rose struggles mightily giving up minutes to Kirk Hinrich; organization dictates Gordon’s minutes cut in favor of Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Hughes; Thomas fails to live up to hype from the off season; Deng misses significant time due to injury for fourth time in five seasons; defense remains mediocre; 30 wins and hoping for great luck in the lottery a second time around.

My Shot in the Dark: The team goes as Rose does, inconsistent through the first half of the season with signs of improvement throughout the second half culminating in 42 wins and a little playoff experience for all the youngsters.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Danny Ferry and Mike Brown are wasting the career of LeBron James. Considering the franchise is only one year removed from a trip to The Finals, that may seem like hyperbole. It is amazing, though, how terrible this roster is beyond James. 45 wins and another trip to the second round of the playoffs was enough to save the jobs of both GM and coach. Still, watching how LeBron performs with this group of mediocrities surrounding him, one can not help but wonder what it will take for Cavaliers management to realize they are enabling an environment for James to flee his hometown for the Nets or Knicks.

The Cavs expected to build upon their surprising run to the Finals by again playing strong defense and letting James create most of the offense. Instead, the defense regressed and beyond Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James got little to no help on the offensive end. Looking to salvage the season, Ferry agreed to a crap swap with the Bulls and Sonics, sending out Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes and brining in Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak. Smith would be unable to maintain the performance he had with Chicago. Wallace would confirm he was finished as a contributor. Szczerbiak failed to provide the outside shooting desperately needed on the team.

Still, poor management of the salary cap and roster left this team with little flexibility for the off season. Ferry did manage to snag point guard Maurice Williams from the Bucks to give LeBron at least a little more help on the offensive end. While this move has many excited about the team for this season, color me unimpressed. The team still lacks any sort of offensive identity. Further, the defense that is their specialty has been overrated. In Brown’s three years as head coach, the team has ranked 14, 4, and 11 in defensive efficiency. If they can get back up to top 5, they could win another 50 games. Outside of the top 10, they could find themselves struggling to win 40.

As well, what was their greatest strength heading into last season, front court depth, has probably become their biggest weakness. Ilgauskas and energy guy Anderson Verejao are their only rotation worthy bigs. Throughout his tenure, Brown has been hesitant to unleash the reigns on the greatest open court threat in the NBA. Now, he may not have much of a choice as it looks like James will need to spend time at the four. This team is in flux at the worst possible point. Ownership should have made moves to show James they are serious about winning with him. Instead, Ferry and Brown keep wasting historic performances away.

Best Case Scenario: James somehow improves on his MVP worthy performance; Williams jumps to All Star level; Wallace found a fountain of youth over the summer making him into the defensive minded, rebounding center James needs to run with; Szczerbiak finds his shooting touch; defense finishes in the top 5; 55 wins and a return to the conference finals at least.

Worst Case Scenario: Williams falls in line behind Hughes and Szczerbiak as failed James running partners; Wallace gets plenty of minutes despite playing like he did last season; defense stays close to middle of the pack; 40 wins and fighting for that last playoff spot.

My Shot in the Dark: I will take the Worst Case Scenario on this one. Obviously, the worst scenario is James is injured in a freak accident, but I do not want to touch that. I do not see Brown having the needed answers to rebound from last year’s performance. 40 wins and a first round ouster leading to Brown’s firing.

Indiana Pacers
This has become such a disinteresting team that they have fallen to last in attendance in a state that prides itself on its collective obsession with basketball. Just a few years ago, this was a team with plenty of young talent that played suffocating defense and looked ready to dominate the Eastern Conference for many years. One night in Detroit ruined everything. Gone now are Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and even franchise cornerstone Jermaine O’Neal. The only hold over from the former core is Jamaal Tinsley. The only reason he stays is because no other team wants to take on his contract and play which are both bad.

While numerous deals have been made to clean up the mess that team created, there is little to show on the roster for all the talent lost. This showed in last season’s 37-45 record despite getting career years from Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Troy Murphy. Danny Granger is the closest thing on the team to a franchise player, but he is still far from even an All Star berth.

New addition T.J. Ford, acquired for O’Neal, is a lightening quick point guard who should help push the pace and create open looks for the team’s many perimeter shooters. His presence could help offset some of the lack of offensive talent on the team. That is assuming he is healthy and on the court. Given his injury history through his brief NBA career, that is far from a given.

Jim O’Brien will have this team playing defense, running the court, and shooting threes. If anything, that means they should at least be fun to watch. Still, the roster is comprised of mediocrity and will be hard pressed to get beyond that level.

Best Case Scenario: Ford plays nearly a full season and joins Granger in the All Star game; Dunleavy and Murphy both repeat last year’s performances; defense takes another step forward; close to 50 wins and finally back in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Ford misses a significant portion of time; Dunleavy and Murphy regress and no one else can pick up the slack; Granger fails to improve; 20 wins and back to the lottery for Larry Bird.

My Shot in the Dark: Ford misses a significant chunk of time but plays enough to make an impact; Murphy regresses slightly, Dunleavy significantly; Granger takes a step forward; 37 wins again and staying home for the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks
How can a team with so much frontline talent be so bad? Given the fact that they play a league worst defense, it is hard to fathom that a team led by Michael Redd, Maurice Williams, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva could not score enough points to battle for a playoff spot in the East. Instead, they over performed their win expectancy to finish with 26 victories. What had been a good offense, bad defense team has become just bad.

Looking for a quick turnaround, the Buck brought in head coach Scott Skiles. Though he flamed out quickly from his first two jobs, Skiles brings a level of intensity and defensive acumen that has served his teams well and quickly. Looking to increase the opportunity for a quick turnaround, the Bucks traded last year’s first round pick Yi Janlian for small forward Richard Jefferson. As small forward was a terrible position for the team last year, Jefferson should prove to be a large enough upgrade. In fact, the improvement there should more than offset the dealing away of Williams that leaves Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions to man the point.

If anything positive could be taken away from last season, it was the noticeable improvement by former first pick overall Bogut. While still performing nowhere near the level of some drafted after him, notably Chris Paul and Deron Williams, he took a step forward after two league average seasons to start his career. Happily for him, he was rewarded with a large contract extension during the off season. Further improvement by the Aussie will be needed if the team hopes to compete for a playoff spot.

Even adding Jefferson to the mix and more improvement by Bogut, there are too many places for Skiles to mess this team up. The most obvious chance for disaster is at power forward. While Villanueva has failed to improve since the Bucks acquired him for T.J. Ford, he still provides enough on the offensive end to warrant a starting job. Unfortunately for him, Malik Allen, a Skiles favorite from their days in Chicago, looks like a possible usurper. While Allen and Villanueva are both poor rebounders and defenders, the veteran and or better defender usually is given the benefit of the doubt by Skiles. Allen wins out in both cases.

Questions of defense surround this roster. Mostly, will Skiles actually get the team to play defense? During his tenure with the Bulls, he relied heavily on veteran big men to provide strong interior defense. Outside of Allen, there does not appear to be anyone who fits the bill. As well, Jefferson is the closing thing they have to a stopper on the perimeter. If Skiles thought he had to limit Ben Gordon’s minutes because of his defense, what will he do with Redd? If the defense gets out of the lower third of the league, Skiles will have earned his reputation as heir to Larry Brown’s King of the Turnaround.

Best Case Scenario: Defense rises to top 20; Skiles overcomes the temptation to give heavy minutes to Allen and Adrian Griffin; Bogut and Villanueva show improvement; offensive performance returns to top half of NBA; win totals in the low 40’s and first round playoff ouster.

Worst Case Scenario: Skiles gets too comfortable with the veterans and small ball lineups; offense fails to improve from last season; defensive improvement only gets them out of “league worst” territory; fewer than 30 wins and yet another off season in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Skiles gets too comfortable with veterans and small ball line ups; small improvements on both sides of the ball; Bogut fails to improve while Villanueva continues career trend of constant regression; 32 wins and fewer lottery balls than last season.