Who is the best run organization in Cleveland?

Found this very interesting quote on True Hoop

Dan Labbe for Cleveland.com: "While I was watching the Cavaliers and Pistons last night, just hours after hearing that Kellen Winslow would appeal his one-game suspension the Browns handed down to him, I started to realize something. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the best-run professional team in this city. And it's not even close. ... If the Browns and Indians hope to find some consistent success, I'd suggest they grab a pen and paper. Cavs season starts Tuesday, and it might be wise for them take some notes."

The Browns are a terrible organization, with that I have no qualms. But the idea that the Cavaliers are better run than the Indians is laughable. Danny Ferry came to this team with LeBron James already in place. The hardest part of building an NBA franchise, acquiring superstar talent, had already been done. Ferry's failed to successfully build upon that. Yes, the franchise has made the playoffs. They have done so in a weak conference in a league which allows over half of its teams into the postseason. Yes, they made an appearance in the NBA Finals. Again, they made it through a weak conference mainly due to the singular brilliance of James.

The Indians, on the other hand, have had a nice run over the last four years though their record doesn't quite reflect it. In 2005, they won 93 games and missed the playoffs by 2 games. In 2006, they won 78 games despite having the run differential of an 89 win team. While that still would have left them fourth in their division, it was a strong performance. 2007 saw them win 96 games and come within a win of a trip to the World Series. This year, they finished at .500. All that's missing to distinguish them from the Cavs is that trip to the World Series. Still, this is an organization that built from the bottom up. They have developed gobs of young talent with more still coming. They have lacked that singular star to carry the weight. In other words, they have been relatively far more successful than the Cavs.

Titans are 6-0?

I hate parity in sports. I want to see great teams clashing for a championship at the end of the season. I watch sports to have a chance to view excellence, not to see two teams hoping the ball bounces their way. I love the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox spending gobs and gobs of money to get themselves into the playoffs every year. I love the New England Patriots finding new ways to win every year. I love how it is impossible to sneak through the NBA Playoffs with smoke and mirrors.

Right now, I am disappointed in the NFL. Coming into this season, it seemed there would be at least three teams distinguishing themselves from the pack: Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys. The Chargers, Jaguars, Giants, and Packers all looked like teams that could potentially win at least 12 games. After last season’s exciting playoffs, it looked like we were in store for some more fun at the top. Instead, it looks more and more like we have returned to the mediocre lows of 1999-2002.

Those years were low points for me as a fan of the NFL. By the end of the 2003 Super Bowl, I wondered how much I would want to track the NFL anymore. We had seen a string of one-dimensional teams win the Super Bowl. Several teams that made the Super Bowl failed to make return trips to the playoffs. The 1999 St. Louis Rams went from anomaly to trend setter. Suddenly, every season seemed to have at least one team go from top of the draft to top of the conference. Each of those years, an unproven or journeyman quarterback started under center for the eventual champion.

The closest thing to an elite team over that time span was the St. Louis Rams. Their offense was so overwhelmingly good, that they were able to overcome terrible to above average defenses for three years before injuries wrecked the team in 2002. The Patriots got their start as a dynasty during this era. Still, their Super Bowl victory was more a fluke than the two that would follow. A terrible rule gave them a victory over Oakland they should not have had. Mike Martz’s refusal to simply and repeatedly hand the ball off to Marshall Faulk gave them the Super Bowl. It was a turnaround team that was simply above average on both sides of the ball.

Of course, the Patriots would get better on both sides as Tom Brady matured and Bill Belicheck perfected the defense. With them would come the rise of the Indianapolis Colts. A team that was perfect foil to the tough, veteran laden, adaptable Pats. Peyton Manning and company came with a soft label they could not live down through repeated losses to the Pats. Still, every time these two teams faced off for several seasons, you knew you were watching the two best teams in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers would also arise as contenders to the crown relying on their franchise m.o. of running game and defense.

Right now, while the season is still only half done, I fear parity is back. I look at the Tennessee Titans sitting at 6-0 despite starting Kerry Collins at quarterback and think, this could not be the best team in the league. They have yet to post a single impressive win. The remainder of their schedule is such that I would not be surprised if they won 14 or 15 games. Still, I doubt this team is much better than last year’s version which was one and done in the playoffs.
Of course, it is unlikely that the parity is here to stay. Brady will be back under center for the Patriots next season. The Colts could get healthy enough this season to take advantage and win a second Super Bowl. If not this year, a little off season tinkering should have them back into contention for next season. The Cowboys and Chargers have simply too much talent to struggle as they have this year. Both teams will likely see improvement over the second half of the year or find themselves with new coaches for next season. It probably is not as bad as the dark days of 1999-2002 and at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Still, sports just are not as fun when every team has a chance.

Central Division

Detroit Pistons
The king is dead, long live the king. That expression has never made much sense to me, but it seems to fit this organization quite well. This team is still incredibly talented and a sure bet for 50 wins and a division crown. Their days as title contenders, though, appear to be over.

After having made their fifth consecutive trip to at least the Eastern Conference Finals only to fall short for the third time, the Pistons entered last season vowing to spread out the minutes across the roster. While the goal was to save up their four core players for another playoff run, greater benefits emerged with development of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiel, and Amir Johnson.

Alas, the originally intended benefit never came to fruition as the Pistons fell to the Celtics in 6 games, making it three consecutive semi-final round losses. Instead of praising the team for being good enough to reach the conference finals six years in a row, many started looking hard for the flaws that resulted in them losing four of those series. Sadly, the wrong flaws were being looked at. Most, it seemed, assumed that the Pistons lacked some sort of internal fortitude to make it back to the Finals. The more obvious explanation, though, is that they were just eliminated by better teams. With the exception of their loss to the Cavs in 2007, the case can certainly be made that the team got as far as they should have and the years they got further were due more to luck. Their championship season of 2004 certainly benefited from having mass internal conflict within the far superior Lakers. In 2005, they were fortunate to beat the Heat in seven games as they were down three games to two when an injury kept Dwayne Wade out of game six.

Entering this offseason, it is possible that Joe Dumars recognized the one thing all the teams the Pistons lost to in the playoffs had in common: superstar talent. Much was made of the Pistons championship for they were a team comprised of several All Star caliber players but no one who would be MVP worthy. Such a model has rarely worked in the NBA and the Pistons are proving to be a great case study as to why. Their playoff losses have come to teams with those players who are able to take over large chunks of games in various ways with their immense talent and skill. While Chauncey Billups was able to perform at such a level in the 2004 playoffs, no one else has been able to step up like that since.

Dumars made it publicly known that he was looking to move some of those core, All Star players for a chance at one of the few, true superstars in the league. Rumors had him seeking to acquire Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Unfortunately, Dumars was unable to find any proper fits. So, the same cast of characters from last season returns for another run. The core four of Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace have all gotten another year older and likely a little worse. The youngsters sit in the wings, waiting for their time to take over. Many of the faces have changed over the last couple years, but the ending should look strikingly familiar.

Best Case Scenario: The Big 4 keep chugging along with All Star performances; Stuckey, Maxiel, and Johnson make the most of their time on the court with further progress; new coach Michael Curry reinvigorates the roster to over 60 wins and the team gets some those breaks in the playoffs they got in 2004 and 2005.

Worst Case Scenario: Frustrated veterans prove too much for a rookie head coach with internal strife leading to Dumars having to blow up much of the roster getting little back in return; about 42 wins and a low seed in the playoffs.

My Shot in the Dark: Curry continues with a nice blend of the veterans and youngsters; natural declines by the veterans is offset by natural improvement by the youngsters; 55 wins and a fourth consecutive loss in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Chicago Bulls
This team has changed so much, yet in the end, not at all. While expectations were high coming into last season after a 49 win season and a sweep of the Heat, the young team crumpled under trade rumors and disharmony in the locker room. Coach Scott Skiles was the first to go after admitting he had quit on the team because it seemed they had quit on him. Unfortunately, his dismissal lost any chance of effectiveness when he was replaced by assistant Jim Boylan. Referred to as “a nicer Skiles” by many players, he simply prolonged the issues of not developing younger players while allowing veterans too much of a say in how the team was run.

Then, free agent bust Ben Wallace was shipped out of town with veteran leaders Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin. Coming back were intriguing veterans Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden. While many saw this trade as a crap swap, there was hope that Hughes and Gooden could both return to previous performance levels. While Gooden confirmed some reason for hope, Hughes proved to be just as finished as a contributor as Wallace before him. Worst though, Hughes clogged up an already deep backcourt taking minutes from Ben Gordon and Thabo Sefolosha.

Despite all of this, the Bulls were battling for a playoff spot all the way to the end of the season. Fortunately for them, they fell in the lottery and made best of their 1.7% chance of getting the first pick. Chicago native point guard Derrick Rose was the pick.

Another rookie will have a large impact on the team in head coach Vinny DelNegro. Best known for his role as the starting shooting guard for the Spurs first championship, DelNegro came from the Phoenix Suns front office. Armed with long time veteran coaches Bernie Bickerstaff and Del Harris, DelNegro vowed to bring the best of his Spurs and Suns experiences to the Bulls: intense defense teamed with an up tempo offense.

The offseason was not limited to those acquisitions. Luol Deng was locked into a six year deal. A skilled small forward who specializes in working without the ball, Deng will be a great piece to build around the next few years though likely to never be “the man.” Unfortunately, his draft mate Ben Gordon was unable to secure his own long term deal. With the Bulls refusing to offer a contract that would take them over the luxury tax threshold, Gordon settled for the Qualifying Offer. Failing to get Gordon under contract, John Paxson refused to make any future moves without having future cost certainty. Still, numerous major pieces remain from that 49 win team from two seasons ago. At the same time, Rose is the only addition to a squad that lost 49 games last season.
Best Case Scenario: Rose performs at a Rookie of the Year level; Deng’s game steps up with his pay rate; Gordon gets vast majority of minutes at SG proving he is worthy of an eight figure annual salary; Tyrus Thomas makes a significant leap forward; defense returns to top 10 in efficiency; 47 wins and a trip to the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Rose struggles mightily giving up minutes to Kirk Hinrich; organization dictates Gordon’s minutes cut in favor of Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Hughes; Thomas fails to live up to hype from the off season; Deng misses significant time due to injury for fourth time in five seasons; defense remains mediocre; 30 wins and hoping for great luck in the lottery a second time around.

My Shot in the Dark: The team goes as Rose does, inconsistent through the first half of the season with signs of improvement throughout the second half culminating in 42 wins and a little playoff experience for all the youngsters.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Danny Ferry and Mike Brown are wasting the career of LeBron James. Considering the franchise is only one year removed from a trip to The Finals, that may seem like hyperbole. It is amazing, though, how terrible this roster is beyond James. 45 wins and another trip to the second round of the playoffs was enough to save the jobs of both GM and coach. Still, watching how LeBron performs with this group of mediocrities surrounding him, one can not help but wonder what it will take for Cavaliers management to realize they are enabling an environment for James to flee his hometown for the Nets or Knicks.

The Cavs expected to build upon their surprising run to the Finals by again playing strong defense and letting James create most of the offense. Instead, the defense regressed and beyond Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James got little to no help on the offensive end. Looking to salvage the season, Ferry agreed to a crap swap with the Bulls and Sonics, sending out Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes and brining in Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak. Smith would be unable to maintain the performance he had with Chicago. Wallace would confirm he was finished as a contributor. Szczerbiak failed to provide the outside shooting desperately needed on the team.

Still, poor management of the salary cap and roster left this team with little flexibility for the off season. Ferry did manage to snag point guard Maurice Williams from the Bucks to give LeBron at least a little more help on the offensive end. While this move has many excited about the team for this season, color me unimpressed. The team still lacks any sort of offensive identity. Further, the defense that is their specialty has been overrated. In Brown’s three years as head coach, the team has ranked 14, 4, and 11 in defensive efficiency. If they can get back up to top 5, they could win another 50 games. Outside of the top 10, they could find themselves struggling to win 40.

As well, what was their greatest strength heading into last season, front court depth, has probably become their biggest weakness. Ilgauskas and energy guy Anderson Verejao are their only rotation worthy bigs. Throughout his tenure, Brown has been hesitant to unleash the reigns on the greatest open court threat in the NBA. Now, he may not have much of a choice as it looks like James will need to spend time at the four. This team is in flux at the worst possible point. Ownership should have made moves to show James they are serious about winning with him. Instead, Ferry and Brown keep wasting historic performances away.

Best Case Scenario: James somehow improves on his MVP worthy performance; Williams jumps to All Star level; Wallace found a fountain of youth over the summer making him into the defensive minded, rebounding center James needs to run with; Szczerbiak finds his shooting touch; defense finishes in the top 5; 55 wins and a return to the conference finals at least.

Worst Case Scenario: Williams falls in line behind Hughes and Szczerbiak as failed James running partners; Wallace gets plenty of minutes despite playing like he did last season; defense stays close to middle of the pack; 40 wins and fighting for that last playoff spot.

My Shot in the Dark: I will take the Worst Case Scenario on this one. Obviously, the worst scenario is James is injured in a freak accident, but I do not want to touch that. I do not see Brown having the needed answers to rebound from last year’s performance. 40 wins and a first round ouster leading to Brown’s firing.

Indiana Pacers
This has become such a disinteresting team that they have fallen to last in attendance in a state that prides itself on its collective obsession with basketball. Just a few years ago, this was a team with plenty of young talent that played suffocating defense and looked ready to dominate the Eastern Conference for many years. One night in Detroit ruined everything. Gone now are Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and even franchise cornerstone Jermaine O’Neal. The only hold over from the former core is Jamaal Tinsley. The only reason he stays is because no other team wants to take on his contract and play which are both bad.

While numerous deals have been made to clean up the mess that team created, there is little to show on the roster for all the talent lost. This showed in last season’s 37-45 record despite getting career years from Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Troy Murphy. Danny Granger is the closest thing on the team to a franchise player, but he is still far from even an All Star berth.

New addition T.J. Ford, acquired for O’Neal, is a lightening quick point guard who should help push the pace and create open looks for the team’s many perimeter shooters. His presence could help offset some of the lack of offensive talent on the team. That is assuming he is healthy and on the court. Given his injury history through his brief NBA career, that is far from a given.

Jim O’Brien will have this team playing defense, running the court, and shooting threes. If anything, that means they should at least be fun to watch. Still, the roster is comprised of mediocrity and will be hard pressed to get beyond that level.

Best Case Scenario: Ford plays nearly a full season and joins Granger in the All Star game; Dunleavy and Murphy both repeat last year’s performances; defense takes another step forward; close to 50 wins and finally back in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Ford misses a significant portion of time; Dunleavy and Murphy regress and no one else can pick up the slack; Granger fails to improve; 20 wins and back to the lottery for Larry Bird.

My Shot in the Dark: Ford misses a significant chunk of time but plays enough to make an impact; Murphy regresses slightly, Dunleavy significantly; Granger takes a step forward; 37 wins again and staying home for the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks
How can a team with so much frontline talent be so bad? Given the fact that they play a league worst defense, it is hard to fathom that a team led by Michael Redd, Maurice Williams, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva could not score enough points to battle for a playoff spot in the East. Instead, they over performed their win expectancy to finish with 26 victories. What had been a good offense, bad defense team has become just bad.

Looking for a quick turnaround, the Buck brought in head coach Scott Skiles. Though he flamed out quickly from his first two jobs, Skiles brings a level of intensity and defensive acumen that has served his teams well and quickly. Looking to increase the opportunity for a quick turnaround, the Bucks traded last year’s first round pick Yi Janlian for small forward Richard Jefferson. As small forward was a terrible position for the team last year, Jefferson should prove to be a large enough upgrade. In fact, the improvement there should more than offset the dealing away of Williams that leaves Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions to man the point.

If anything positive could be taken away from last season, it was the noticeable improvement by former first pick overall Bogut. While still performing nowhere near the level of some drafted after him, notably Chris Paul and Deron Williams, he took a step forward after two league average seasons to start his career. Happily for him, he was rewarded with a large contract extension during the off season. Further improvement by the Aussie will be needed if the team hopes to compete for a playoff spot.

Even adding Jefferson to the mix and more improvement by Bogut, there are too many places for Skiles to mess this team up. The most obvious chance for disaster is at power forward. While Villanueva has failed to improve since the Bucks acquired him for T.J. Ford, he still provides enough on the offensive end to warrant a starting job. Unfortunately for him, Malik Allen, a Skiles favorite from their days in Chicago, looks like a possible usurper. While Allen and Villanueva are both poor rebounders and defenders, the veteran and or better defender usually is given the benefit of the doubt by Skiles. Allen wins out in both cases.

Questions of defense surround this roster. Mostly, will Skiles actually get the team to play defense? During his tenure with the Bulls, he relied heavily on veteran big men to provide strong interior defense. Outside of Allen, there does not appear to be anyone who fits the bill. As well, Jefferson is the closing thing they have to a stopper on the perimeter. If Skiles thought he had to limit Ben Gordon’s minutes because of his defense, what will he do with Redd? If the defense gets out of the lower third of the league, Skiles will have earned his reputation as heir to Larry Brown’s King of the Turnaround.

Best Case Scenario: Defense rises to top 20; Skiles overcomes the temptation to give heavy minutes to Allen and Adrian Griffin; Bogut and Villanueva show improvement; offensive performance returns to top half of NBA; win totals in the low 40’s and first round playoff ouster.

Worst Case Scenario: Skiles gets too comfortable with the veterans and small ball lineups; offense fails to improve from last season; defensive improvement only gets them out of “league worst” territory; fewer than 30 wins and yet another off season in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Skiles gets too comfortable with veterans and small ball line ups; small improvements on both sides of the ball; Bogut fails to improve while Villanueva continues career trend of constant regression; 32 wins and fewer lottery balls than last season.

Southeastern Division

This is the second part of my series of divisional previews of the NBA. The Southeast Division of the NBA could turn into a swamp of mediocrity. 2008 division champ Orlando won 52 games with a win expectancy of 56. While another 50 wins from Orlando is certainly a possibility, I would not be the least bit surprised to find the winner of the division barely crossing 41 wins. Orlando could be due for a regression. Washington could be due another second place finish in the division and quick trip out of the first round of the playoffs. The rest of the division is three teams that could surprise the league, either positively or negatively.

Orlando Magic
Last year could be just the beginning for this franchise. Center Dwight Howard had the best year of his young career and should keep improving for at least a few more years. When you throw an MVP caliber player out there every night, it would be very difficult to miss the playoffs. As well, last year’s free agent prize Rashard Lewis should be due for a return to his previous career norms in production. Jameer Nelson is likewise a candidate for return to form. This year’s free agent, Mikael Pietrus, might provide the combined defense and perimeter shooting they need from the shooting guard position.

While there is a lot that could go right for this team, I see too much that could go wrong. The return of Tony Battie is being counted on to provide Howard much needed help on the boards and interior defense. That will not be enough. Hedo Turkoglu is coming off a decent career year, including many clutch performances, that is not likely to be improved upon or even matched. While he probably will not drop off a cliff, it would be a shock if he does not regress. Lewis, while certainly likely to rebound in performance, will not necessarily return to the prior levels of his career. Even if he does, he and Turkoglu are still near replicas of each other that should not be on the court simultaneously. Nelson and Pietrus will likely be the worst starting backcourt of any team in the playoffs, assuming that both are starting this season.

Best Case Scenario: Howard improves on an MVP worthy season; Lewis earns part of his max deal; Turkoglu is dealt for some much needed inside help; Pietrus in a defined position finally lives up to his hype; Nelson comes out strong; 60 wins and a trip to the conference finals.

Worst Case Scenario: Howard goes down with an injury; Lewis and Turkoglu see a lot of time on the floor together at similar production levels; Pietrus and Nelson both have mediocre seasons; 20 wins and hope to find help for Howard in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Howard puts together another near MVP worthy performance; Lewis has a rebound season; Turkoglu is dealt for something, no guarantees it is useful; the back court is a drags down the quality of the team; 47 wins, another division championship, and a quick out in the first round.

Washington Wizards
Where exactly is this franchise headed? I touched upon this in an earlier post, but I just do not understand why they paid so much to keep this squad together. Over the last four seasons, they have finished with 45, 42, 41, and 43 wins. The only time they won a playoff series, it was against a Bulls team missing Eddy Curry and Luol Deng. They have committed a great deal of money to Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison to maintain mediocrity.

Last year was an intriguing one for the squad. With Arenas sidelined for most of the season with an injury, they slowed down the pace and actually played defense for the first half of the season. As the year went on, though, they lost most of that defensive identity and again finished in the lower third of the league. Jamison and Caron Butler were helped on the offensive end by a strong year from Brendan Haywood. With a late season return of Arenas derailed by aggravation of his previous injury, the team once again bowed out before getting 4 wins in the playoffs.

Arenas is again due to miss part of the season to injury, though this time it should only be a month. When he returns, coach Eddie Jordan will have his work cut out for him. Will the Wizards return to the slower pace of last season or will Arenas force them to once again play fast? Will they be able to find a consistent defensive effort for the season? Can any of the role players make a bigger contribution?

Best Case Scenario: Arenas comes back strong from his injury and fits in well with what the rest of the team is doing; Butler, Jamison, and Haywood repeat last year’s production; Andrew Blacthe and another of their youngsters step up; team returns to top of NBA in offensive efficiency; 50 wins and a run at the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: Arenas plays sparingly and does not fit in with the rest of the team when he does; defensive struggles continue; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; Butler or Jamison see a drop off in production; the supporting cast remains weak; 30 wins and a resounding wake up call to break this team up.

My Shot in the Dark: Arenas does not mesh with last year’s philosophy forcing the team to adjust to him; Butler repeats last year performance as Jamison begins his decline; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; mediocre offense and terrible defense; 40 wins and battling for the last playoff spot.

Charlotte Bobcats
This team has seemingly been on the rise for the last couple years. With the addition of Larry Brown as coach, they could finally be ready to make the organization’s first trip to the playoffs. Of course, many assumed the same thing about last year’s addition of Jason Richardson. Instead, they suffered through another losing season with only 32 victories.

The core of Richardson, Gerald Wallace, and Emeka Okafor is a very solid start. Still, none of them are exactly locks for the All Star game. After that, this roster is filled with too many players with bad injury histories, not enough experience, or both. Of course, Wallace is one of those who cannot seam to stay healthy and Okafor has not been the epitome of endurance either. Nazr Mohammed provides a nice, veteran complement at center. Who else on this team is capable of helping? Recent lottery picks Raymond Felton, Sean May, and Adam Morrison have failed to show they can when they are actually on the court. Rookie D.J. Augustin could provide some life. Too bad Brown does not like young point guards. It is hard to see any reason for hope.

That is where Brown comes in. This man has built a great reputation off of quickly turning around basketball teams. While he is best known for working with veteran squads, I think his time as coach of the 76ers shows he can handle young squads as well. He will have this team playing strong defense. With Mohammed and Okafor in the front court, it is hard to imagine them finishing worse than average in defensive efficiency. The bigger questions will be who can provide what on the offensive end. Richardson will be leant upon greatly. This team needs one of May, Felton, and Morrison to come through if they want to make the playoffs. They need two of them if they want to really make some noise. There is some reason for hope and many reasons for doubt right now.

Best Case Scenario: Richardson and Okafor have All Star worthy seasons; Wallace plays at least 65 games; May and Felton provide some offensive depth; Brown makes this a top 5 defensive squad; 45 wins and first trip to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Richardson or Okafor join Wallace on the IR for too much of the season; all of the draft busts keep in line with career norms; a year away from coaching somehow causes Brown to lose his touch; 25 wins and back to wasting lottery picks.

My Shot in the Dark: Brown turns this into a top 10 defensive squad; Richardson has an All Star worthy season; Okafor and Wallace have solid years; on of the draft bust provides league average production; 37 wins and another year watching the playoffs from home.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are likely to be the team in the East most widely considered due for a collective breakout. With a roster filled with several young former lottery picks, the team seemingly made its first step last season by making the playoffs. As the eight seed, they were expected to quickly roll over in four games to the Boston Celtics. Things were going to script after two games with Atlanta being blown out twice.

As the series shifted to Atlanta, the series began to get interesting. With two very close home victories in their belt, the Hawks returned to Boston for pivotal Game 5 only to be blown out once more. As a credit to this team and coach Mike Woodson, they refused to back down in Game 6, again pulling out a close victory at home. The series and their season would be finished in Game 7 with yet another blowout loss.

Many took this series as a sign of hope for the future. While beating the eventual champs three times in a playoff series is an impressive feat, the series looked a lot closer than it was. The Hawks wins were by 9, 5, and 3 points. Their losses were by 23, 19, 25, and 34 points. There is certainly much road to be traveled by this organization before it can be considered a contender.

Still, there were many positives from last season. While team leader Joe Johnson had a slip in production, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams all had promising seasons. Al Horford nearly stole Rookie of the Year from Kevin Durant with an admirable performance of his own as an undersized center with no true power forward to help him out. The acquisition of Mike Bibby cost the team little in terms of assets and should hopefully help to answer the team’s seemingly ever present point guard problem. As well, a full season of Bibby at his best will especially be needed to help replace the production lost when Childress left for Europe. The question remains if Bibby’s best was left in Sacramento. Still, the roster overall is very young and another trip to the playoffs should not be out of the question.

Best Case Scenario: Johnson and Smith have All Star caliber seasons; Williams and Horford add on to the progress from last season; a full season with a contender rejuvenates Bibby; get some help from the bench; 47 wins and a fist round ouster that lasts another 7 games.

Worst Case Scenario: Johnson declines again; Smith gets too comfortable with his big contract; Williams and Horford stagnate; Bibby confirms his best days are well behind him; 30 wins and back to the drawing board.

My Shot in the Dark: Johnson and Smith both player closer to where they were in 06-07; Horford takes a step forward in his second year; Williams stays about where he was; Bibby provides okay production offensively but gives everything back on the defensive side; 35 wins and back to the lottery.

Miami Heat
After a brief detour that led to a title, the Heat are back to where they were when they initially drafted Dwayne Wade. Coming of consecutive losing seasons after losing Alonzo Mourning to a kidney disease, the Heat drafted Wade onto a team that did not match Pat Riley’s ideal. It was a team with some good young pieces that appeared best suited for an up tempo style. Lamar Odom and Caron Butler appeared to be destined as Wade’s running mates. This was far from the defensive minded, overly physical squads Riley had put together for the Heat and the Knicks before then. Fittingly, the head coaching job had been handed over to one of his disciples who led a surprising team to 42 wins and a trip to the playoffs.

With Shaquille O’Neal suddenly available, Riley moved the franchise another direction, getting older and slower overnight. The franchise would pay the price for the moves that brought home the championship. Forty-four wins and a sweep out of the first round seemed to indicate moves were needed. Only touch ups would be made. With Wad injured much of the year and O’Neal proving too old, out of shape, and ineffective, the Heat struggled with a roster of players who all seemed better off in the NBA Developmental League.

A mid-season trade of Shaq for Shawn Marion and a few others would do little to curb the losing of last season. That deal, though, has helped the team move back to the identity of young and athletic. With little hope for title contention, Riley has again handed the head coaching gig to one of his assistants. Eric Spoelestra will certainly have his work cut out for him.

Wade and Marion make for a fantastic one-two punch. As well, the Heat were fortunate enough to land the second pick in the draft, which they used on forward Michael Beasley. Beyond that, the roster is still largely comprised of players who seem they should only be playing significant minutes in the D-League. Wade and Beasley should provide plenty of points between them with Marion as a nice offensive complement. Questions abound as to defense, rebounding, and the quality of the bench. While the future should be bright with the building blocks they have, it is hard to see how well they will overcome their shortcomings this season.

Best Case Scenario: Wade takes home MVP with Beasley the Rookie of the Year and Marion happy to play the third banana; two players step up as legitimate complements to round out the starting five; 50 wins, division title, and a run into the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Wade cannot shake the injuries that have haunted him the last couple seasons; Beasley lives up to the concerns over his mental commitment on and off the court; Marion begins a rapid decline; no one on the roster is able to step up; 15 wins again and back to the top of the draft.

My Shot in the Dark: Wade plays the majority of the season at MVP level; Beasley provides enough scoring to run away with the RoY; Marion begrudgingly fills in as the third banana; little else is provided by the rest of the roster; 35 wins and the first step towards being great in the future.