There's Hope Yet

In 2005, I told everyone around me that the Bears were going to win at least 10 games and the division. I just knew the defense was due to breakout and that the running game would provide enough offense. Even when Rex Grossman went down in preseason and rookie Kyle Orton was named his replacement, 10 wins seemed to be the floor of expectations.

The season did not start as well as I had hoped for. The Bears lost their opener 9-7 to the Redskins. They followed that up by blowing out the Lions in their home opener. I recall being very excited after that win and assuming that the upcoming game against Cincinnati would be another easy win. 5 Orton interceptions later, the Bears found themselves 1-2 heading into the bye week, looking forward to a trip to Cleveland. The season lost its luster for me when Trent Dilfer hooked up with Antonio Bryant on two fourth quarter touchdown passes. The Bears stood 1-3 and could not even beat the lowly Browns. How could I possibly have expected this team to win 10 games?

My question would be answered over the next two months as the Bears would rip off 8 consecutive victories en route to finishing 11-5. It was a team that won they way I thought it would, great defense and special teams, good ground game, and just enough points scored.

The reason I bring this up is that after yesterday’s loss to the Buccaneers, I began feeling about the same as I did after the loss to the Bengals in 2005. While I was quite unsure if the team would rebound from its relatively disastrous 2007 (the way people talked about the team over the offseason, it is hard to believe they finished 7-9 and not 0-16), I could see potential for a third division championship in four years.

Likely overreacting to an opening week win over the Colts, I quickly assumed this team was back and ready to rack up double digit wins yet again. Two gut wrenching, frustrating, infuriating losses later, the Bears are 1-2 and likely headed to 1-3 with the Eagles looming next Sunday night. Does this team have another 8 game win streak in them?

I have to say, I still remain optimistic about this season. While beating the Eagles is not likely, the defense should come out fired up enough to keep it close. After that, the schedule leaves a lot of potential to make a run similar to 2005. A 4 game stretch of road games against Detroit and Atlanta followed by home games against Minnesota and Detroit should produce at least 3 wins. That would leave the team 4-4 after the first half. A home game against Tennessee and up to Green Bay should go 1-1 followed by a gimme win down in St. Louis. That is followed by a trip to the Metrodome and 3 home games against Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay. At worst, that should leave the Bears at 8-7 heading into their season finale at Houston.

9 wins will not be enough to get the Bears a wild card spot in this year’s NFC. It certainly will not be enough to top the Packers for the division crown. At the same time, I think I have been fairly conservative with this schedule. Philadelphia and Green Bay are the only teams left on the schedule that really scare me. Lovie has lived up to his promise to treat the Green Bay games as something special and has a 5-3 record to show for it. The Bears looked bad against Minnesota twice last year, but nearly won both games. Detroit and St. Louis are terrible. Atlanta’s looked good in two games, but couldn’t move the ball against Tampa Bay, who, of course, run a similar defense to the Bears. Tennessee and Jacksonville are similar to the Bears in that they like to keep scores low so anything could happen. Both games could easily go in the Bears’ favor or not. New Orleans and Houston are both mediocre teams with ok offenses and not so good defenses. I have to say, I will be disappointed if this team does not win at least 10 games. That could still not be enough for a playoff spot, but my hopes for the season have not been dashed yet.