Atlantic Division

This is the first in a series of divisional previews for the NBA. The Atlantic Division is an almost perfect breakdown for each spot. The likely winner, Boston, is a legitimate contender. The team I believe will finish second, Toronto, is a dark horse championship contender. The third place team, Philadelphia, is a seeming shoo-in for the playoffs but not quite good enough. If either New Jersey or New York were just good enough to miss out on the playoffs, we would be set. Instead, Boston, Toronto, and Philadelphia should enjoy strong seasons while New York and New Jersey battle it out for the most ping pong balls and who can shed more salary in anticipation of 2010.

Boston Celtics
The most obvious question is, is this team capable of catching last year’s highs? The Celtics answered their doubters strongly enough at the beginning of the season to bring talks of 70 wins to the forefront. As the season wore on, the team would begin to fall back to the pack. Still, 66 wins was enough for best record in the league. Surprisingly difficult 7 game victories over Atlanta and Cleveland in the first two rounds of the playoffs brought back the doubters. Resounding 6 game victories over Detroit and the Lakers brought back the NBA Championship to Boston.

So, will they be able to regain the same level of passion and defensive excellence that propelled them last season? Will they, rather, slide back further to the pack as previously selfish players again search for their own agendas a la the Heat of the last two seasons? As long as Garnett’s around, I think this team will be safe of any dramatic fall off. Still, there will be some drop off from last year. Garnett, Pierce, and Allen all will likely suffer a loss in drive as well as natural declination due to age and a long playoff run that contained an astounding number of games. They have good young pieces in Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and Leon Powe who should help offset some of what the veterans lose.

Best Case Scenario: The Big 3 come back with a collective fire in their belly to prove last year was no one shot deal; the youngsters all positively develop further; another 66 wins and Finals victory over the Lakers.

Worst Case Scenario: At least 2 of The Big 3 drop off a cliff in performance or miss significant time due to injury; role players start acting like they are stars; win total in the mid-30’s and a return to the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Tom Thibodeau keeps the defense tough; some regression by The Big 3; some development by some of the youngsters; observable drop off intensity making the team resemble more the squad from the second half of the season and first two rounds of the playoffs; 57 wins, another division crown and trip to the Conference Finals

Toronto Raptors
Team followed up a division title and 47 wins in 2007 with a disappointing 41 wins last season. However, those numbers are a bit deceiving. In 2007, they had the point differential of a 44 win team. Last season, they had the point differential of a 49 win team. While luck does not necessarily equal itself out, this is a team that could be due for a large jump in win total.

The team entered last season with three All Star caliber players. Unfortunately, two of them played the same position. When T.J. Ford went down with a seemingly inevitable injury, Jose Calderon was allowed to shoulder the load at point guard and distinguish himself as the guy to keep at the position. Chris Bosh continued his seemingly quiet development into an eventual MVP candidate. It is unfortunate that he emerged from the same class as LeBron, Melo, and Wade and is resigned to relative obscurity. A brilliant YouTube campaign ad helped him at least get the All Star nod he deserved. If this team can return to last year’s point differential, his relative obscurity may come to an end. Bryan Colangelo rectified the glut at point guard and actually got something useful in return for Ford. Jermaine O’Neal comes with a hefty price tag attached, but if he can stay healthy, this team could be much more dangerous than anyone expects. A team that is already good enough to finish in the top 10 in offensive efficiency could see itself climb the charts in defensive efficiency by adding some much needed muscle to the front court.

Best Case Scenario: Bosh, Calderon, and O’Neal all put forth All Star worthy seasons; just enough perimeter shooting and defense provided from the wings; Andrea Barnagni proves to be a valuable player off the bench spelling Bosh and O’Neal; challenge for 60 wins, division crown, and a trip to the Finals

Worst Case Scenario: O’Neal spends more time injured than not; Calderon regresses; Bosh suffers significant injury; Barnagni proves to be Italian for Milicic; total lack of production from the wings; 20 wins and a whole lot of ping pong balls.

My Shot in the Dark: O’Neal comes out inspired and plays at least 60 games; Bosh and Calderon keep improving; 55 wins, a good scare for Boston, and second round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers
Heading into last season, most people expect the Sixers to not just be bad, but historically bad. This would be their first full season without Allen Iverson and the roster was full of mediocre role players. General Manager Billy King was finally fired early in the season and replaced by former Net assistant GM Ed Stefanski. Stefanski quickly set to work, sending perimeter shooter extraordinaire Kyle Korver to Utah. At that point, his next two actions seemed obvious, trade Andre Miller and fire coach Maurice Cheeks. Instead, Stefanski had a sit down with Cheeks, explaining he wanted to see the younger players get more time in a more up tempo pace of play. Instead of trying to primp his resume for his next job by sticking to the veterans, Cheeks answered the challenge spectacularly. Relying on Miller, Andre Igoudala, Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young, and Samuel Dalembert, the Sixers found themselves in the playoffs with 40 wins. A closer than expected first round loss to the Pistons sent them into a critical off season.

When the off season started, the larger points of emphasis were to secure restricted free agents Igoudala and Williams to new contracts. Stefanski was able to do so at reasonable rates. Then came the shocker. Elton Brand had already surprised many when he took advantage of the opportunity to get out of the last year of his contract with the Clippers. When Baron Davis agreed to terms with the Clippers, it seemed it would only be a matter of time before Brand resigned. A brief flirtation with the Warriors was topped by Brand flying out East to meet with the Sixers. Stefanski quickly shed salary to put the team into position to make an offer. To the surprise of many, Brand accepted.

The Sixers in the span of a year have moved from potentially historically bad to near playoff locks and dark horse championship contenders. Ironically, Stefanski’s first move, getting rid of a perimeter shooting role player, has created the biggest need for the team. No one currently on the team is known for their ability to hit an open three. There are also questions of how well the team will fit together. While most of the incumbents fit best in an up tempo style, Brand is a classic pound it inside post player. As well, while Dalembert is a nice weak side defender, his slight build will force Brand to take on the bangers other teams throw on the court. Cheeks will again have his work cut out for him.

Best Case Scenario: Brand returns to All Star form; Miller avoids regression; Igoudala keeps improving; Williams and Young take the next step; over 55 wins challenging for the division crown and home court advantage in the first round before bowing out in the Conference Finals.

Worst Case Scenario: The after effects of Brand’s knee injury limit his effectiveness; Miller’s age catches up with him in a hurry; Igoudala maintains current level of production or takes a step back; Williams and Young fail to develop; win total in the upper 30’s challenging for one of the last playoff spots.

My Shot in the Dark: Brand comes back near previous form; Miller takes a step back from last year; Igoudala keeps improving; Williams or Young takes a step forward while the other takes a step back; 47 wins and a good showing in a first round playoff loss.

New York Knickerbockers
Finally, the organization has begun the much needed work of cleaning its roster and image of the dirt left by Isaiah Thomas. For some reason, Thomas was left to continue his reign of ineptitude for one more year. By adding Zach Randolph via a draft day trade to a roster filled with shoot first players who fail to even try on the defensive end, the Knicks seemed to think they could somehow win enough one on one battles on the offensive end to outscore their opponents. Unfortunately for them, the NBA still only allows one ball on the court at a time. The team suffered through yet another tumultuous season that produced a woeful 23 victories.

Thomas was finally fired as head coach, GM, and Team President though retained in some unknown position with MSG. His replacement as team President is the highly regarded Donnie Walsh formerly of the Indiana Pacers. Walsh built a strong reputation from the consistent winners he sent out on the court in Indiana. Many assume he will come in and quickly clean up Isaiah’s mess. Of course, this is the same guy who put Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and Jamal Tinsley on his team at the same time. His Pacers teams were often good and seldom great. As well, over the past few years he had ceded roster control to Larry Bird. This is quite a mess for Walsh to take over and even at the peak of his abilities, will take a matter of years to clean up.

Coming in to assist Walsh is former Suns coach Mike D’Antoni. Best known for a fast paced, three point shooting style that deemphasizes defense, D’Antoni seems like a gas can added to a raging fire with this current roster. While there is a chance he could get them to be a bit more efficient offensively, Knicks fans likely will not have much to look forward to this season.

Best Case Scenario: Randolph plays defense and learns to pass; Eddy Curry rebounds like a man his size should; someone actually trades value for Stephon Marbury; Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson actually connect on a decent amount of the their three point shots; just north of 40 wins and an ouster from the first round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Players tune out everything else D’Antoni has to say after hearing “I want a shot put up in the first seven seconds of the shot clock”; David Lee gets hurt; 15 wins and lots of 120-90 losses.

My Shot in the Dark: D’Antoni gets enough guys to buy into playing his system the right way; someone plays a little defense; Marbury never suits up for the team; lots of 110-90 losses; 25 wins and a return to the lottery.

New Jersey Nets
The Nets had a chance to start reloading before last season. Instead, they took another shot at mediocrity with an ever aging and thinning roster. Now, a year later they have begun that rebuilding process but are paying for their decision to wait in the form of Vince Carter’s contract. Still, this team has at least identified a plan and started working towards it. Unfortunately for Nets fans, that plan is to get out of New Jersey and collect players solely with the aim of shedding salary for the summer of 2010.

Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson have already been moved for younger pieces and expiring contracts. Devin Harris and Yi Janlian are intriguing pieces in their own ways. Harris is somewhat underrated and actually an improvement over what Kidd was giving the Nets last year. Yi has loads of upside if he is as old as claimed. As the Olympics proved, though, a Chinese birth certificate is not the must trustworthy document. Either way, the Nets seem bound to continue shedding salary while hoping Jay Z can lure LeBron to Brooklyn two years from now.

Best Case Scenario: Carter returns to previous levels of production and takes seriously his role as veteran leader of the team; Harris takes a big step forward; Yi and a couple other young players step up; close to 40 wins and a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario: Carter pouts and plays even worse than last year’s career worst year; none of the young players show any signs of development; fewer than 20 wins and hope for the first pick of the draft.

My Shot in the Dark: A more mature Carter has a resurgent year trying to prove doubters wrong; Harris and a couple of the youngsters step up; Yi shows no signs of progress; 23 wins and a return to the dregs of the NBA for the franchise.

NBA Preview

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the NBA’s Eastern Conference looked to continue it existence as the Big 10 to the Western Conference’s SEC. The top contenders for the conference crown entering the season appeared to be old and in decline (Detroit and Miami) or young with a limited ceiling (Chicago and Cleveland). Eventual league champion Boston was an unknown as few could guess as to how well their Big 3 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen would fit together.

Here we sit now, nearing the dawn of a new season. The gap between the two conferences has shrunk considerably. In the Atlantic Division alone, there are three strong contenders for 50 wins. Orlando, Cleveland, and Detroit make for three more. The very bottom of the conference still remains awful, but there are a slew of mediocre teams that, one of which could turn into a good Cinderella story for the season. The top of the West may be stronger, but the East is at least no longer a wasteland of mediocrity.

As previously stated, I believe the West should have another epic battle royale for the top spot in the conference. Last year saw a beginning in the changing of the guard. Dallas and Phoenix revealed immense desperation for that elusive title by adding the over the hill Jason Kidd and Shaquille O’Neal respectively. Instead of battling for a spot in The Finals, both teams found themselves battling to the end just to make the playoffs. San Antonio remains as the lone representative of the old guard.

The representatives of the new guard are numerous. The Lakers, New Orleans, Utah, and Houston all possess the potential to make trips to The Finals. The rest of the conference, though, is filled with a couple teams falling fast, one team on the rise, and a few others who seem light years away. As quickly as the East has caught up to the West, how long will it take for the West to begin to fall behind?

To follow will be a series of team previews, division by division. You can look forward to a couple quick paragraphs about each team, best and worst case scenarios for next season, and prediction that will likely turn out horribly wrong.

There's Hope Yet

In 2005, I told everyone around me that the Bears were going to win at least 10 games and the division. I just knew the defense was due to breakout and that the running game would provide enough offense. Even when Rex Grossman went down in preseason and rookie Kyle Orton was named his replacement, 10 wins seemed to be the floor of expectations.

The season did not start as well as I had hoped for. The Bears lost their opener 9-7 to the Redskins. They followed that up by blowing out the Lions in their home opener. I recall being very excited after that win and assuming that the upcoming game against Cincinnati would be another easy win. 5 Orton interceptions later, the Bears found themselves 1-2 heading into the bye week, looking forward to a trip to Cleveland. The season lost its luster for me when Trent Dilfer hooked up with Antonio Bryant on two fourth quarter touchdown passes. The Bears stood 1-3 and could not even beat the lowly Browns. How could I possibly have expected this team to win 10 games?

My question would be answered over the next two months as the Bears would rip off 8 consecutive victories en route to finishing 11-5. It was a team that won they way I thought it would, great defense and special teams, good ground game, and just enough points scored.

The reason I bring this up is that after yesterday’s loss to the Buccaneers, I began feeling about the same as I did after the loss to the Bengals in 2005. While I was quite unsure if the team would rebound from its relatively disastrous 2007 (the way people talked about the team over the offseason, it is hard to believe they finished 7-9 and not 0-16), I could see potential for a third division championship in four years.

Likely overreacting to an opening week win over the Colts, I quickly assumed this team was back and ready to rack up double digit wins yet again. Two gut wrenching, frustrating, infuriating losses later, the Bears are 1-2 and likely headed to 1-3 with the Eagles looming next Sunday night. Does this team have another 8 game win streak in them?

I have to say, I still remain optimistic about this season. While beating the Eagles is not likely, the defense should come out fired up enough to keep it close. After that, the schedule leaves a lot of potential to make a run similar to 2005. A 4 game stretch of road games against Detroit and Atlanta followed by home games against Minnesota and Detroit should produce at least 3 wins. That would leave the team 4-4 after the first half. A home game against Tennessee and up to Green Bay should go 1-1 followed by a gimme win down in St. Louis. That is followed by a trip to the Metrodome and 3 home games against Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay. At worst, that should leave the Bears at 8-7 heading into their season finale at Houston.

9 wins will not be enough to get the Bears a wild card spot in this year’s NFC. It certainly will not be enough to top the Packers for the division crown. At the same time, I think I have been fairly conservative with this schedule. Philadelphia and Green Bay are the only teams left on the schedule that really scare me. Lovie has lived up to his promise to treat the Green Bay games as something special and has a 5-3 record to show for it. The Bears looked bad against Minnesota twice last year, but nearly won both games. Detroit and St. Louis are terrible. Atlanta’s looked good in two games, but couldn’t move the ball against Tampa Bay, who, of course, run a similar defense to the Bears. Tennessee and Jacksonville are similar to the Bears in that they like to keep scores low so anything could happen. Both games could easily go in the Bears’ favor or not. New Orleans and Houston are both mediocre teams with ok offenses and not so good defenses. I have to say, I will be disappointed if this team does not win at least 10 games. That could still not be enough for a playoff spot, but my hopes for the season have not been dashed yet.