Who is the best run organization in Cleveland?

Found this very interesting quote on True Hoop

Dan Labbe for Cleveland.com: "While I was watching the Cavaliers and Pistons last night, just hours after hearing that Kellen Winslow would appeal his one-game suspension the Browns handed down to him, I started to realize something. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the best-run professional team in this city. And it's not even close. ... If the Browns and Indians hope to find some consistent success, I'd suggest they grab a pen and paper. Cavs season starts Tuesday, and it might be wise for them take some notes."

The Browns are a terrible organization, with that I have no qualms. But the idea that the Cavaliers are better run than the Indians is laughable. Danny Ferry came to this team with LeBron James already in place. The hardest part of building an NBA franchise, acquiring superstar talent, had already been done. Ferry's failed to successfully build upon that. Yes, the franchise has made the playoffs. They have done so in a weak conference in a league which allows over half of its teams into the postseason. Yes, they made an appearance in the NBA Finals. Again, they made it through a weak conference mainly due to the singular brilliance of James.

The Indians, on the other hand, have had a nice run over the last four years though their record doesn't quite reflect it. In 2005, they won 93 games and missed the playoffs by 2 games. In 2006, they won 78 games despite having the run differential of an 89 win team. While that still would have left them fourth in their division, it was a strong performance. 2007 saw them win 96 games and come within a win of a trip to the World Series. This year, they finished at .500. All that's missing to distinguish them from the Cavs is that trip to the World Series. Still, this is an organization that built from the bottom up. They have developed gobs of young talent with more still coming. They have lacked that singular star to carry the weight. In other words, they have been relatively far more successful than the Cavs.

Titans are 6-0?

I hate parity in sports. I want to see great teams clashing for a championship at the end of the season. I watch sports to have a chance to view excellence, not to see two teams hoping the ball bounces their way. I love the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox spending gobs and gobs of money to get themselves into the playoffs every year. I love the New England Patriots finding new ways to win every year. I love how it is impossible to sneak through the NBA Playoffs with smoke and mirrors.

Right now, I am disappointed in the NFL. Coming into this season, it seemed there would be at least three teams distinguishing themselves from the pack: Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys. The Chargers, Jaguars, Giants, and Packers all looked like teams that could potentially win at least 12 games. After last season’s exciting playoffs, it looked like we were in store for some more fun at the top. Instead, it looks more and more like we have returned to the mediocre lows of 1999-2002.

Those years were low points for me as a fan of the NFL. By the end of the 2003 Super Bowl, I wondered how much I would want to track the NFL anymore. We had seen a string of one-dimensional teams win the Super Bowl. Several teams that made the Super Bowl failed to make return trips to the playoffs. The 1999 St. Louis Rams went from anomaly to trend setter. Suddenly, every season seemed to have at least one team go from top of the draft to top of the conference. Each of those years, an unproven or journeyman quarterback started under center for the eventual champion.

The closest thing to an elite team over that time span was the St. Louis Rams. Their offense was so overwhelmingly good, that they were able to overcome terrible to above average defenses for three years before injuries wrecked the team in 2002. The Patriots got their start as a dynasty during this era. Still, their Super Bowl victory was more a fluke than the two that would follow. A terrible rule gave them a victory over Oakland they should not have had. Mike Martz’s refusal to simply and repeatedly hand the ball off to Marshall Faulk gave them the Super Bowl. It was a turnaround team that was simply above average on both sides of the ball.

Of course, the Patriots would get better on both sides as Tom Brady matured and Bill Belicheck perfected the defense. With them would come the rise of the Indianapolis Colts. A team that was perfect foil to the tough, veteran laden, adaptable Pats. Peyton Manning and company came with a soft label they could not live down through repeated losses to the Pats. Still, every time these two teams faced off for several seasons, you knew you were watching the two best teams in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers would also arise as contenders to the crown relying on their franchise m.o. of running game and defense.

Right now, while the season is still only half done, I fear parity is back. I look at the Tennessee Titans sitting at 6-0 despite starting Kerry Collins at quarterback and think, this could not be the best team in the league. They have yet to post a single impressive win. The remainder of their schedule is such that I would not be surprised if they won 14 or 15 games. Still, I doubt this team is much better than last year’s version which was one and done in the playoffs.
Of course, it is unlikely that the parity is here to stay. Brady will be back under center for the Patriots next season. The Colts could get healthy enough this season to take advantage and win a second Super Bowl. If not this year, a little off season tinkering should have them back into contention for next season. The Cowboys and Chargers have simply too much talent to struggle as they have this year. Both teams will likely see improvement over the second half of the year or find themselves with new coaches for next season. It probably is not as bad as the dark days of 1999-2002 and at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Still, sports just are not as fun when every team has a chance.

Central Division

Detroit Pistons
The king is dead, long live the king. That expression has never made much sense to me, but it seems to fit this organization quite well. This team is still incredibly talented and a sure bet for 50 wins and a division crown. Their days as title contenders, though, appear to be over.

After having made their fifth consecutive trip to at least the Eastern Conference Finals only to fall short for the third time, the Pistons entered last season vowing to spread out the minutes across the roster. While the goal was to save up their four core players for another playoff run, greater benefits emerged with development of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiel, and Amir Johnson.

Alas, the originally intended benefit never came to fruition as the Pistons fell to the Celtics in 6 games, making it three consecutive semi-final round losses. Instead of praising the team for being good enough to reach the conference finals six years in a row, many started looking hard for the flaws that resulted in them losing four of those series. Sadly, the wrong flaws were being looked at. Most, it seemed, assumed that the Pistons lacked some sort of internal fortitude to make it back to the Finals. The more obvious explanation, though, is that they were just eliminated by better teams. With the exception of their loss to the Cavs in 2007, the case can certainly be made that the team got as far as they should have and the years they got further were due more to luck. Their championship season of 2004 certainly benefited from having mass internal conflict within the far superior Lakers. In 2005, they were fortunate to beat the Heat in seven games as they were down three games to two when an injury kept Dwayne Wade out of game six.

Entering this offseason, it is possible that Joe Dumars recognized the one thing all the teams the Pistons lost to in the playoffs had in common: superstar talent. Much was made of the Pistons championship for they were a team comprised of several All Star caliber players but no one who would be MVP worthy. Such a model has rarely worked in the NBA and the Pistons are proving to be a great case study as to why. Their playoff losses have come to teams with those players who are able to take over large chunks of games in various ways with their immense talent and skill. While Chauncey Billups was able to perform at such a level in the 2004 playoffs, no one else has been able to step up like that since.

Dumars made it publicly known that he was looking to move some of those core, All Star players for a chance at one of the few, true superstars in the league. Rumors had him seeking to acquire Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Unfortunately, Dumars was unable to find any proper fits. So, the same cast of characters from last season returns for another run. The core four of Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace have all gotten another year older and likely a little worse. The youngsters sit in the wings, waiting for their time to take over. Many of the faces have changed over the last couple years, but the ending should look strikingly familiar.

Best Case Scenario: The Big 4 keep chugging along with All Star performances; Stuckey, Maxiel, and Johnson make the most of their time on the court with further progress; new coach Michael Curry reinvigorates the roster to over 60 wins and the team gets some those breaks in the playoffs they got in 2004 and 2005.

Worst Case Scenario: Frustrated veterans prove too much for a rookie head coach with internal strife leading to Dumars having to blow up much of the roster getting little back in return; about 42 wins and a low seed in the playoffs.

My Shot in the Dark: Curry continues with a nice blend of the veterans and youngsters; natural declines by the veterans is offset by natural improvement by the youngsters; 55 wins and a fourth consecutive loss in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Chicago Bulls
This team has changed so much, yet in the end, not at all. While expectations were high coming into last season after a 49 win season and a sweep of the Heat, the young team crumpled under trade rumors and disharmony in the locker room. Coach Scott Skiles was the first to go after admitting he had quit on the team because it seemed they had quit on him. Unfortunately, his dismissal lost any chance of effectiveness when he was replaced by assistant Jim Boylan. Referred to as “a nicer Skiles” by many players, he simply prolonged the issues of not developing younger players while allowing veterans too much of a say in how the team was run.

Then, free agent bust Ben Wallace was shipped out of town with veteran leaders Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin. Coming back were intriguing veterans Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden. While many saw this trade as a crap swap, there was hope that Hughes and Gooden could both return to previous performance levels. While Gooden confirmed some reason for hope, Hughes proved to be just as finished as a contributor as Wallace before him. Worst though, Hughes clogged up an already deep backcourt taking minutes from Ben Gordon and Thabo Sefolosha.

Despite all of this, the Bulls were battling for a playoff spot all the way to the end of the season. Fortunately for them, they fell in the lottery and made best of their 1.7% chance of getting the first pick. Chicago native point guard Derrick Rose was the pick.

Another rookie will have a large impact on the team in head coach Vinny DelNegro. Best known for his role as the starting shooting guard for the Spurs first championship, DelNegro came from the Phoenix Suns front office. Armed with long time veteran coaches Bernie Bickerstaff and Del Harris, DelNegro vowed to bring the best of his Spurs and Suns experiences to the Bulls: intense defense teamed with an up tempo offense.

The offseason was not limited to those acquisitions. Luol Deng was locked into a six year deal. A skilled small forward who specializes in working without the ball, Deng will be a great piece to build around the next few years though likely to never be “the man.” Unfortunately, his draft mate Ben Gordon was unable to secure his own long term deal. With the Bulls refusing to offer a contract that would take them over the luxury tax threshold, Gordon settled for the Qualifying Offer. Failing to get Gordon under contract, John Paxson refused to make any future moves without having future cost certainty. Still, numerous major pieces remain from that 49 win team from two seasons ago. At the same time, Rose is the only addition to a squad that lost 49 games last season.
Best Case Scenario: Rose performs at a Rookie of the Year level; Deng’s game steps up with his pay rate; Gordon gets vast majority of minutes at SG proving he is worthy of an eight figure annual salary; Tyrus Thomas makes a significant leap forward; defense returns to top 10 in efficiency; 47 wins and a trip to the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Rose struggles mightily giving up minutes to Kirk Hinrich; organization dictates Gordon’s minutes cut in favor of Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Hughes; Thomas fails to live up to hype from the off season; Deng misses significant time due to injury for fourth time in five seasons; defense remains mediocre; 30 wins and hoping for great luck in the lottery a second time around.

My Shot in the Dark: The team goes as Rose does, inconsistent through the first half of the season with signs of improvement throughout the second half culminating in 42 wins and a little playoff experience for all the youngsters.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Danny Ferry and Mike Brown are wasting the career of LeBron James. Considering the franchise is only one year removed from a trip to The Finals, that may seem like hyperbole. It is amazing, though, how terrible this roster is beyond James. 45 wins and another trip to the second round of the playoffs was enough to save the jobs of both GM and coach. Still, watching how LeBron performs with this group of mediocrities surrounding him, one can not help but wonder what it will take for Cavaliers management to realize they are enabling an environment for James to flee his hometown for the Nets or Knicks.

The Cavs expected to build upon their surprising run to the Finals by again playing strong defense and letting James create most of the offense. Instead, the defense regressed and beyond Zydrunas Ilgauskas, James got little to no help on the offensive end. Looking to salvage the season, Ferry agreed to a crap swap with the Bulls and Sonics, sending out Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes and brining in Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak. Smith would be unable to maintain the performance he had with Chicago. Wallace would confirm he was finished as a contributor. Szczerbiak failed to provide the outside shooting desperately needed on the team.

Still, poor management of the salary cap and roster left this team with little flexibility for the off season. Ferry did manage to snag point guard Maurice Williams from the Bucks to give LeBron at least a little more help on the offensive end. While this move has many excited about the team for this season, color me unimpressed. The team still lacks any sort of offensive identity. Further, the defense that is their specialty has been overrated. In Brown’s three years as head coach, the team has ranked 14, 4, and 11 in defensive efficiency. If they can get back up to top 5, they could win another 50 games. Outside of the top 10, they could find themselves struggling to win 40.

As well, what was their greatest strength heading into last season, front court depth, has probably become their biggest weakness. Ilgauskas and energy guy Anderson Verejao are their only rotation worthy bigs. Throughout his tenure, Brown has been hesitant to unleash the reigns on the greatest open court threat in the NBA. Now, he may not have much of a choice as it looks like James will need to spend time at the four. This team is in flux at the worst possible point. Ownership should have made moves to show James they are serious about winning with him. Instead, Ferry and Brown keep wasting historic performances away.

Best Case Scenario: James somehow improves on his MVP worthy performance; Williams jumps to All Star level; Wallace found a fountain of youth over the summer making him into the defensive minded, rebounding center James needs to run with; Szczerbiak finds his shooting touch; defense finishes in the top 5; 55 wins and a return to the conference finals at least.

Worst Case Scenario: Williams falls in line behind Hughes and Szczerbiak as failed James running partners; Wallace gets plenty of minutes despite playing like he did last season; defense stays close to middle of the pack; 40 wins and fighting for that last playoff spot.

My Shot in the Dark: I will take the Worst Case Scenario on this one. Obviously, the worst scenario is James is injured in a freak accident, but I do not want to touch that. I do not see Brown having the needed answers to rebound from last year’s performance. 40 wins and a first round ouster leading to Brown’s firing.

Indiana Pacers
This has become such a disinteresting team that they have fallen to last in attendance in a state that prides itself on its collective obsession with basketball. Just a few years ago, this was a team with plenty of young talent that played suffocating defense and looked ready to dominate the Eastern Conference for many years. One night in Detroit ruined everything. Gone now are Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and even franchise cornerstone Jermaine O’Neal. The only hold over from the former core is Jamaal Tinsley. The only reason he stays is because no other team wants to take on his contract and play which are both bad.

While numerous deals have been made to clean up the mess that team created, there is little to show on the roster for all the talent lost. This showed in last season’s 37-45 record despite getting career years from Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Troy Murphy. Danny Granger is the closest thing on the team to a franchise player, but he is still far from even an All Star berth.

New addition T.J. Ford, acquired for O’Neal, is a lightening quick point guard who should help push the pace and create open looks for the team’s many perimeter shooters. His presence could help offset some of the lack of offensive talent on the team. That is assuming he is healthy and on the court. Given his injury history through his brief NBA career, that is far from a given.

Jim O’Brien will have this team playing defense, running the court, and shooting threes. If anything, that means they should at least be fun to watch. Still, the roster is comprised of mediocrity and will be hard pressed to get beyond that level.

Best Case Scenario: Ford plays nearly a full season and joins Granger in the All Star game; Dunleavy and Murphy both repeat last year’s performances; defense takes another step forward; close to 50 wins and finally back in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Ford misses a significant portion of time; Dunleavy and Murphy regress and no one else can pick up the slack; Granger fails to improve; 20 wins and back to the lottery for Larry Bird.

My Shot in the Dark: Ford misses a significant chunk of time but plays enough to make an impact; Murphy regresses slightly, Dunleavy significantly; Granger takes a step forward; 37 wins again and staying home for the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks
How can a team with so much frontline talent be so bad? Given the fact that they play a league worst defense, it is hard to fathom that a team led by Michael Redd, Maurice Williams, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villaneuva could not score enough points to battle for a playoff spot in the East. Instead, they over performed their win expectancy to finish with 26 victories. What had been a good offense, bad defense team has become just bad.

Looking for a quick turnaround, the Buck brought in head coach Scott Skiles. Though he flamed out quickly from his first two jobs, Skiles brings a level of intensity and defensive acumen that has served his teams well and quickly. Looking to increase the opportunity for a quick turnaround, the Bucks traded last year’s first round pick Yi Janlian for small forward Richard Jefferson. As small forward was a terrible position for the team last year, Jefferson should prove to be a large enough upgrade. In fact, the improvement there should more than offset the dealing away of Williams that leaves Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions to man the point.

If anything positive could be taken away from last season, it was the noticeable improvement by former first pick overall Bogut. While still performing nowhere near the level of some drafted after him, notably Chris Paul and Deron Williams, he took a step forward after two league average seasons to start his career. Happily for him, he was rewarded with a large contract extension during the off season. Further improvement by the Aussie will be needed if the team hopes to compete for a playoff spot.

Even adding Jefferson to the mix and more improvement by Bogut, there are too many places for Skiles to mess this team up. The most obvious chance for disaster is at power forward. While Villanueva has failed to improve since the Bucks acquired him for T.J. Ford, he still provides enough on the offensive end to warrant a starting job. Unfortunately for him, Malik Allen, a Skiles favorite from their days in Chicago, looks like a possible usurper. While Allen and Villanueva are both poor rebounders and defenders, the veteran and or better defender usually is given the benefit of the doubt by Skiles. Allen wins out in both cases.

Questions of defense surround this roster. Mostly, will Skiles actually get the team to play defense? During his tenure with the Bulls, he relied heavily on veteran big men to provide strong interior defense. Outside of Allen, there does not appear to be anyone who fits the bill. As well, Jefferson is the closing thing they have to a stopper on the perimeter. If Skiles thought he had to limit Ben Gordon’s minutes because of his defense, what will he do with Redd? If the defense gets out of the lower third of the league, Skiles will have earned his reputation as heir to Larry Brown’s King of the Turnaround.

Best Case Scenario: Defense rises to top 20; Skiles overcomes the temptation to give heavy minutes to Allen and Adrian Griffin; Bogut and Villanueva show improvement; offensive performance returns to top half of NBA; win totals in the low 40’s and first round playoff ouster.

Worst Case Scenario: Skiles gets too comfortable with the veterans and small ball lineups; offense fails to improve from last season; defensive improvement only gets them out of “league worst” territory; fewer than 30 wins and yet another off season in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Skiles gets too comfortable with veterans and small ball line ups; small improvements on both sides of the ball; Bogut fails to improve while Villanueva continues career trend of constant regression; 32 wins and fewer lottery balls than last season.

Southeastern Division

This is the second part of my series of divisional previews of the NBA. The Southeast Division of the NBA could turn into a swamp of mediocrity. 2008 division champ Orlando won 52 games with a win expectancy of 56. While another 50 wins from Orlando is certainly a possibility, I would not be the least bit surprised to find the winner of the division barely crossing 41 wins. Orlando could be due for a regression. Washington could be due another second place finish in the division and quick trip out of the first round of the playoffs. The rest of the division is three teams that could surprise the league, either positively or negatively.

Orlando Magic
Last year could be just the beginning for this franchise. Center Dwight Howard had the best year of his young career and should keep improving for at least a few more years. When you throw an MVP caliber player out there every night, it would be very difficult to miss the playoffs. As well, last year’s free agent prize Rashard Lewis should be due for a return to his previous career norms in production. Jameer Nelson is likewise a candidate for return to form. This year’s free agent, Mikael Pietrus, might provide the combined defense and perimeter shooting they need from the shooting guard position.

While there is a lot that could go right for this team, I see too much that could go wrong. The return of Tony Battie is being counted on to provide Howard much needed help on the boards and interior defense. That will not be enough. Hedo Turkoglu is coming off a decent career year, including many clutch performances, that is not likely to be improved upon or even matched. While he probably will not drop off a cliff, it would be a shock if he does not regress. Lewis, while certainly likely to rebound in performance, will not necessarily return to the prior levels of his career. Even if he does, he and Turkoglu are still near replicas of each other that should not be on the court simultaneously. Nelson and Pietrus will likely be the worst starting backcourt of any team in the playoffs, assuming that both are starting this season.

Best Case Scenario: Howard improves on an MVP worthy season; Lewis earns part of his max deal; Turkoglu is dealt for some much needed inside help; Pietrus in a defined position finally lives up to his hype; Nelson comes out strong; 60 wins and a trip to the conference finals.

Worst Case Scenario: Howard goes down with an injury; Lewis and Turkoglu see a lot of time on the floor together at similar production levels; Pietrus and Nelson both have mediocre seasons; 20 wins and hope to find help for Howard in the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Howard puts together another near MVP worthy performance; Lewis has a rebound season; Turkoglu is dealt for something, no guarantees it is useful; the back court is a drags down the quality of the team; 47 wins, another division championship, and a quick out in the first round.

Washington Wizards
Where exactly is this franchise headed? I touched upon this in an earlier post, but I just do not understand why they paid so much to keep this squad together. Over the last four seasons, they have finished with 45, 42, 41, and 43 wins. The only time they won a playoff series, it was against a Bulls team missing Eddy Curry and Luol Deng. They have committed a great deal of money to Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison to maintain mediocrity.

Last year was an intriguing one for the squad. With Arenas sidelined for most of the season with an injury, they slowed down the pace and actually played defense for the first half of the season. As the year went on, though, they lost most of that defensive identity and again finished in the lower third of the league. Jamison and Caron Butler were helped on the offensive end by a strong year from Brendan Haywood. With a late season return of Arenas derailed by aggravation of his previous injury, the team once again bowed out before getting 4 wins in the playoffs.

Arenas is again due to miss part of the season to injury, though this time it should only be a month. When he returns, coach Eddie Jordan will have his work cut out for him. Will the Wizards return to the slower pace of last season or will Arenas force them to once again play fast? Will they be able to find a consistent defensive effort for the season? Can any of the role players make a bigger contribution?

Best Case Scenario: Arenas comes back strong from his injury and fits in well with what the rest of the team is doing; Butler, Jamison, and Haywood repeat last year’s production; Andrew Blacthe and another of their youngsters step up; team returns to top of NBA in offensive efficiency; 50 wins and a run at the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: Arenas plays sparingly and does not fit in with the rest of the team when he does; defensive struggles continue; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; Butler or Jamison see a drop off in production; the supporting cast remains weak; 30 wins and a resounding wake up call to break this team up.

My Shot in the Dark: Arenas does not mesh with last year’s philosophy forcing the team to adjust to him; Butler repeats last year performance as Jamison begins his decline; Haywood turns back into a pumpkin; mediocre offense and terrible defense; 40 wins and battling for the last playoff spot.

Charlotte Bobcats
This team has seemingly been on the rise for the last couple years. With the addition of Larry Brown as coach, they could finally be ready to make the organization’s first trip to the playoffs. Of course, many assumed the same thing about last year’s addition of Jason Richardson. Instead, they suffered through another losing season with only 32 victories.

The core of Richardson, Gerald Wallace, and Emeka Okafor is a very solid start. Still, none of them are exactly locks for the All Star game. After that, this roster is filled with too many players with bad injury histories, not enough experience, or both. Of course, Wallace is one of those who cannot seam to stay healthy and Okafor has not been the epitome of endurance either. Nazr Mohammed provides a nice, veteran complement at center. Who else on this team is capable of helping? Recent lottery picks Raymond Felton, Sean May, and Adam Morrison have failed to show they can when they are actually on the court. Rookie D.J. Augustin could provide some life. Too bad Brown does not like young point guards. It is hard to see any reason for hope.

That is where Brown comes in. This man has built a great reputation off of quickly turning around basketball teams. While he is best known for working with veteran squads, I think his time as coach of the 76ers shows he can handle young squads as well. He will have this team playing strong defense. With Mohammed and Okafor in the front court, it is hard to imagine them finishing worse than average in defensive efficiency. The bigger questions will be who can provide what on the offensive end. Richardson will be leant upon greatly. This team needs one of May, Felton, and Morrison to come through if they want to make the playoffs. They need two of them if they want to really make some noise. There is some reason for hope and many reasons for doubt right now.

Best Case Scenario: Richardson and Okafor have All Star worthy seasons; Wallace plays at least 65 games; May and Felton provide some offensive depth; Brown makes this a top 5 defensive squad; 45 wins and first trip to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Richardson or Okafor join Wallace on the IR for too much of the season; all of the draft busts keep in line with career norms; a year away from coaching somehow causes Brown to lose his touch; 25 wins and back to wasting lottery picks.

My Shot in the Dark: Brown turns this into a top 10 defensive squad; Richardson has an All Star worthy season; Okafor and Wallace have solid years; on of the draft bust provides league average production; 37 wins and another year watching the playoffs from home.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are likely to be the team in the East most widely considered due for a collective breakout. With a roster filled with several young former lottery picks, the team seemingly made its first step last season by making the playoffs. As the eight seed, they were expected to quickly roll over in four games to the Boston Celtics. Things were going to script after two games with Atlanta being blown out twice.

As the series shifted to Atlanta, the series began to get interesting. With two very close home victories in their belt, the Hawks returned to Boston for pivotal Game 5 only to be blown out once more. As a credit to this team and coach Mike Woodson, they refused to back down in Game 6, again pulling out a close victory at home. The series and their season would be finished in Game 7 with yet another blowout loss.

Many took this series as a sign of hope for the future. While beating the eventual champs three times in a playoff series is an impressive feat, the series looked a lot closer than it was. The Hawks wins were by 9, 5, and 3 points. Their losses were by 23, 19, 25, and 34 points. There is certainly much road to be traveled by this organization before it can be considered a contender.

Still, there were many positives from last season. While team leader Joe Johnson had a slip in production, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams all had promising seasons. Al Horford nearly stole Rookie of the Year from Kevin Durant with an admirable performance of his own as an undersized center with no true power forward to help him out. The acquisition of Mike Bibby cost the team little in terms of assets and should hopefully help to answer the team’s seemingly ever present point guard problem. As well, a full season of Bibby at his best will especially be needed to help replace the production lost when Childress left for Europe. The question remains if Bibby’s best was left in Sacramento. Still, the roster overall is very young and another trip to the playoffs should not be out of the question.

Best Case Scenario: Johnson and Smith have All Star caliber seasons; Williams and Horford add on to the progress from last season; a full season with a contender rejuvenates Bibby; get some help from the bench; 47 wins and a fist round ouster that lasts another 7 games.

Worst Case Scenario: Johnson declines again; Smith gets too comfortable with his big contract; Williams and Horford stagnate; Bibby confirms his best days are well behind him; 30 wins and back to the drawing board.

My Shot in the Dark: Johnson and Smith both player closer to where they were in 06-07; Horford takes a step forward in his second year; Williams stays about where he was; Bibby provides okay production offensively but gives everything back on the defensive side; 35 wins and back to the lottery.

Miami Heat
After a brief detour that led to a title, the Heat are back to where they were when they initially drafted Dwayne Wade. Coming of consecutive losing seasons after losing Alonzo Mourning to a kidney disease, the Heat drafted Wade onto a team that did not match Pat Riley’s ideal. It was a team with some good young pieces that appeared best suited for an up tempo style. Lamar Odom and Caron Butler appeared to be destined as Wade’s running mates. This was far from the defensive minded, overly physical squads Riley had put together for the Heat and the Knicks before then. Fittingly, the head coaching job had been handed over to one of his disciples who led a surprising team to 42 wins and a trip to the playoffs.

With Shaquille O’Neal suddenly available, Riley moved the franchise another direction, getting older and slower overnight. The franchise would pay the price for the moves that brought home the championship. Forty-four wins and a sweep out of the first round seemed to indicate moves were needed. Only touch ups would be made. With Wad injured much of the year and O’Neal proving too old, out of shape, and ineffective, the Heat struggled with a roster of players who all seemed better off in the NBA Developmental League.

A mid-season trade of Shaq for Shawn Marion and a few others would do little to curb the losing of last season. That deal, though, has helped the team move back to the identity of young and athletic. With little hope for title contention, Riley has again handed the head coaching gig to one of his assistants. Eric Spoelestra will certainly have his work cut out for him.

Wade and Marion make for a fantastic one-two punch. As well, the Heat were fortunate enough to land the second pick in the draft, which they used on forward Michael Beasley. Beyond that, the roster is still largely comprised of players who seem they should only be playing significant minutes in the D-League. Wade and Beasley should provide plenty of points between them with Marion as a nice offensive complement. Questions abound as to defense, rebounding, and the quality of the bench. While the future should be bright with the building blocks they have, it is hard to see how well they will overcome their shortcomings this season.

Best Case Scenario: Wade takes home MVP with Beasley the Rookie of the Year and Marion happy to play the third banana; two players step up as legitimate complements to round out the starting five; 50 wins, division title, and a run into the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Wade cannot shake the injuries that have haunted him the last couple seasons; Beasley lives up to the concerns over his mental commitment on and off the court; Marion begins a rapid decline; no one on the roster is able to step up; 15 wins again and back to the top of the draft.

My Shot in the Dark: Wade plays the majority of the season at MVP level; Beasley provides enough scoring to run away with the RoY; Marion begrudgingly fills in as the third banana; little else is provided by the rest of the roster; 35 wins and the first step towards being great in the future.

Atlantic Division

This is the first in a series of divisional previews for the NBA. The Atlantic Division is an almost perfect breakdown for each spot. The likely winner, Boston, is a legitimate contender. The team I believe will finish second, Toronto, is a dark horse championship contender. The third place team, Philadelphia, is a seeming shoo-in for the playoffs but not quite good enough. If either New Jersey or New York were just good enough to miss out on the playoffs, we would be set. Instead, Boston, Toronto, and Philadelphia should enjoy strong seasons while New York and New Jersey battle it out for the most ping pong balls and who can shed more salary in anticipation of 2010.

Boston Celtics
The most obvious question is, is this team capable of catching last year’s highs? The Celtics answered their doubters strongly enough at the beginning of the season to bring talks of 70 wins to the forefront. As the season wore on, the team would begin to fall back to the pack. Still, 66 wins was enough for best record in the league. Surprisingly difficult 7 game victories over Atlanta and Cleveland in the first two rounds of the playoffs brought back the doubters. Resounding 6 game victories over Detroit and the Lakers brought back the NBA Championship to Boston.

So, will they be able to regain the same level of passion and defensive excellence that propelled them last season? Will they, rather, slide back further to the pack as previously selfish players again search for their own agendas a la the Heat of the last two seasons? As long as Garnett’s around, I think this team will be safe of any dramatic fall off. Still, there will be some drop off from last year. Garnett, Pierce, and Allen all will likely suffer a loss in drive as well as natural declination due to age and a long playoff run that contained an astounding number of games. They have good young pieces in Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and Leon Powe who should help offset some of what the veterans lose.

Best Case Scenario: The Big 3 come back with a collective fire in their belly to prove last year was no one shot deal; the youngsters all positively develop further; another 66 wins and Finals victory over the Lakers.

Worst Case Scenario: At least 2 of The Big 3 drop off a cliff in performance or miss significant time due to injury; role players start acting like they are stars; win total in the mid-30’s and a return to the lottery.

My Shot in the Dark: Tom Thibodeau keeps the defense tough; some regression by The Big 3; some development by some of the youngsters; observable drop off intensity making the team resemble more the squad from the second half of the season and first two rounds of the playoffs; 57 wins, another division crown and trip to the Conference Finals

Toronto Raptors
Team followed up a division title and 47 wins in 2007 with a disappointing 41 wins last season. However, those numbers are a bit deceiving. In 2007, they had the point differential of a 44 win team. Last season, they had the point differential of a 49 win team. While luck does not necessarily equal itself out, this is a team that could be due for a large jump in win total.

The team entered last season with three All Star caliber players. Unfortunately, two of them played the same position. When T.J. Ford went down with a seemingly inevitable injury, Jose Calderon was allowed to shoulder the load at point guard and distinguish himself as the guy to keep at the position. Chris Bosh continued his seemingly quiet development into an eventual MVP candidate. It is unfortunate that he emerged from the same class as LeBron, Melo, and Wade and is resigned to relative obscurity. A brilliant YouTube campaign ad helped him at least get the All Star nod he deserved. If this team can return to last year’s point differential, his relative obscurity may come to an end. Bryan Colangelo rectified the glut at point guard and actually got something useful in return for Ford. Jermaine O’Neal comes with a hefty price tag attached, but if he can stay healthy, this team could be much more dangerous than anyone expects. A team that is already good enough to finish in the top 10 in offensive efficiency could see itself climb the charts in defensive efficiency by adding some much needed muscle to the front court.

Best Case Scenario: Bosh, Calderon, and O’Neal all put forth All Star worthy seasons; just enough perimeter shooting and defense provided from the wings; Andrea Barnagni proves to be a valuable player off the bench spelling Bosh and O’Neal; challenge for 60 wins, division crown, and a trip to the Finals

Worst Case Scenario: O’Neal spends more time injured than not; Calderon regresses; Bosh suffers significant injury; Barnagni proves to be Italian for Milicic; total lack of production from the wings; 20 wins and a whole lot of ping pong balls.

My Shot in the Dark: O’Neal comes out inspired and plays at least 60 games; Bosh and Calderon keep improving; 55 wins, a good scare for Boston, and second round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers
Heading into last season, most people expect the Sixers to not just be bad, but historically bad. This would be their first full season without Allen Iverson and the roster was full of mediocre role players. General Manager Billy King was finally fired early in the season and replaced by former Net assistant GM Ed Stefanski. Stefanski quickly set to work, sending perimeter shooter extraordinaire Kyle Korver to Utah. At that point, his next two actions seemed obvious, trade Andre Miller and fire coach Maurice Cheeks. Instead, Stefanski had a sit down with Cheeks, explaining he wanted to see the younger players get more time in a more up tempo pace of play. Instead of trying to primp his resume for his next job by sticking to the veterans, Cheeks answered the challenge spectacularly. Relying on Miller, Andre Igoudala, Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young, and Samuel Dalembert, the Sixers found themselves in the playoffs with 40 wins. A closer than expected first round loss to the Pistons sent them into a critical off season.

When the off season started, the larger points of emphasis were to secure restricted free agents Igoudala and Williams to new contracts. Stefanski was able to do so at reasonable rates. Then came the shocker. Elton Brand had already surprised many when he took advantage of the opportunity to get out of the last year of his contract with the Clippers. When Baron Davis agreed to terms with the Clippers, it seemed it would only be a matter of time before Brand resigned. A brief flirtation with the Warriors was topped by Brand flying out East to meet with the Sixers. Stefanski quickly shed salary to put the team into position to make an offer. To the surprise of many, Brand accepted.

The Sixers in the span of a year have moved from potentially historically bad to near playoff locks and dark horse championship contenders. Ironically, Stefanski’s first move, getting rid of a perimeter shooting role player, has created the biggest need for the team. No one currently on the team is known for their ability to hit an open three. There are also questions of how well the team will fit together. While most of the incumbents fit best in an up tempo style, Brand is a classic pound it inside post player. As well, while Dalembert is a nice weak side defender, his slight build will force Brand to take on the bangers other teams throw on the court. Cheeks will again have his work cut out for him.

Best Case Scenario: Brand returns to All Star form; Miller avoids regression; Igoudala keeps improving; Williams and Young take the next step; over 55 wins challenging for the division crown and home court advantage in the first round before bowing out in the Conference Finals.

Worst Case Scenario: The after effects of Brand’s knee injury limit his effectiveness; Miller’s age catches up with him in a hurry; Igoudala maintains current level of production or takes a step back; Williams and Young fail to develop; win total in the upper 30’s challenging for one of the last playoff spots.

My Shot in the Dark: Brand comes back near previous form; Miller takes a step back from last year; Igoudala keeps improving; Williams or Young takes a step forward while the other takes a step back; 47 wins and a good showing in a first round playoff loss.

New York Knickerbockers
Finally, the organization has begun the much needed work of cleaning its roster and image of the dirt left by Isaiah Thomas. For some reason, Thomas was left to continue his reign of ineptitude for one more year. By adding Zach Randolph via a draft day trade to a roster filled with shoot first players who fail to even try on the defensive end, the Knicks seemed to think they could somehow win enough one on one battles on the offensive end to outscore their opponents. Unfortunately for them, the NBA still only allows one ball on the court at a time. The team suffered through yet another tumultuous season that produced a woeful 23 victories.

Thomas was finally fired as head coach, GM, and Team President though retained in some unknown position with MSG. His replacement as team President is the highly regarded Donnie Walsh formerly of the Indiana Pacers. Walsh built a strong reputation from the consistent winners he sent out on the court in Indiana. Many assume he will come in and quickly clean up Isaiah’s mess. Of course, this is the same guy who put Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, and Jamal Tinsley on his team at the same time. His Pacers teams were often good and seldom great. As well, over the past few years he had ceded roster control to Larry Bird. This is quite a mess for Walsh to take over and even at the peak of his abilities, will take a matter of years to clean up.

Coming in to assist Walsh is former Suns coach Mike D’Antoni. Best known for a fast paced, three point shooting style that deemphasizes defense, D’Antoni seems like a gas can added to a raging fire with this current roster. While there is a chance he could get them to be a bit more efficient offensively, Knicks fans likely will not have much to look forward to this season.

Best Case Scenario: Randolph plays defense and learns to pass; Eddy Curry rebounds like a man his size should; someone actually trades value for Stephon Marbury; Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson actually connect on a decent amount of the their three point shots; just north of 40 wins and an ouster from the first round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Players tune out everything else D’Antoni has to say after hearing “I want a shot put up in the first seven seconds of the shot clock”; David Lee gets hurt; 15 wins and lots of 120-90 losses.

My Shot in the Dark: D’Antoni gets enough guys to buy into playing his system the right way; someone plays a little defense; Marbury never suits up for the team; lots of 110-90 losses; 25 wins and a return to the lottery.

New Jersey Nets
The Nets had a chance to start reloading before last season. Instead, they took another shot at mediocrity with an ever aging and thinning roster. Now, a year later they have begun that rebuilding process but are paying for their decision to wait in the form of Vince Carter’s contract. Still, this team has at least identified a plan and started working towards it. Unfortunately for Nets fans, that plan is to get out of New Jersey and collect players solely with the aim of shedding salary for the summer of 2010.

Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson have already been moved for younger pieces and expiring contracts. Devin Harris and Yi Janlian are intriguing pieces in their own ways. Harris is somewhat underrated and actually an improvement over what Kidd was giving the Nets last year. Yi has loads of upside if he is as old as claimed. As the Olympics proved, though, a Chinese birth certificate is not the must trustworthy document. Either way, the Nets seem bound to continue shedding salary while hoping Jay Z can lure LeBron to Brooklyn two years from now.

Best Case Scenario: Carter returns to previous levels of production and takes seriously his role as veteran leader of the team; Harris takes a big step forward; Yi and a couple other young players step up; close to 40 wins and a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario: Carter pouts and plays even worse than last year’s career worst year; none of the young players show any signs of development; fewer than 20 wins and hope for the first pick of the draft.

My Shot in the Dark: A more mature Carter has a resurgent year trying to prove doubters wrong; Harris and a couple of the youngsters step up; Yi shows no signs of progress; 23 wins and a return to the dregs of the NBA for the franchise.

NBA Preview

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the NBA’s Eastern Conference looked to continue it existence as the Big 10 to the Western Conference’s SEC. The top contenders for the conference crown entering the season appeared to be old and in decline (Detroit and Miami) or young with a limited ceiling (Chicago and Cleveland). Eventual league champion Boston was an unknown as few could guess as to how well their Big 3 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen would fit together.

Here we sit now, nearing the dawn of a new season. The gap between the two conferences has shrunk considerably. In the Atlantic Division alone, there are three strong contenders for 50 wins. Orlando, Cleveland, and Detroit make for three more. The very bottom of the conference still remains awful, but there are a slew of mediocre teams that, one of which could turn into a good Cinderella story for the season. The top of the West may be stronger, but the East is at least no longer a wasteland of mediocrity.

As previously stated, I believe the West should have another epic battle royale for the top spot in the conference. Last year saw a beginning in the changing of the guard. Dallas and Phoenix revealed immense desperation for that elusive title by adding the over the hill Jason Kidd and Shaquille O’Neal respectively. Instead of battling for a spot in The Finals, both teams found themselves battling to the end just to make the playoffs. San Antonio remains as the lone representative of the old guard.

The representatives of the new guard are numerous. The Lakers, New Orleans, Utah, and Houston all possess the potential to make trips to The Finals. The rest of the conference, though, is filled with a couple teams falling fast, one team on the rise, and a few others who seem light years away. As quickly as the East has caught up to the West, how long will it take for the West to begin to fall behind?

To follow will be a series of team previews, division by division. You can look forward to a couple quick paragraphs about each team, best and worst case scenarios for next season, and prediction that will likely turn out horribly wrong.

There's Hope Yet

In 2005, I told everyone around me that the Bears were going to win at least 10 games and the division. I just knew the defense was due to breakout and that the running game would provide enough offense. Even when Rex Grossman went down in preseason and rookie Kyle Orton was named his replacement, 10 wins seemed to be the floor of expectations.

The season did not start as well as I had hoped for. The Bears lost their opener 9-7 to the Redskins. They followed that up by blowing out the Lions in their home opener. I recall being very excited after that win and assuming that the upcoming game against Cincinnati would be another easy win. 5 Orton interceptions later, the Bears found themselves 1-2 heading into the bye week, looking forward to a trip to Cleveland. The season lost its luster for me when Trent Dilfer hooked up with Antonio Bryant on two fourth quarter touchdown passes. The Bears stood 1-3 and could not even beat the lowly Browns. How could I possibly have expected this team to win 10 games?

My question would be answered over the next two months as the Bears would rip off 8 consecutive victories en route to finishing 11-5. It was a team that won they way I thought it would, great defense and special teams, good ground game, and just enough points scored.

The reason I bring this up is that after yesterday’s loss to the Buccaneers, I began feeling about the same as I did after the loss to the Bengals in 2005. While I was quite unsure if the team would rebound from its relatively disastrous 2007 (the way people talked about the team over the offseason, it is hard to believe they finished 7-9 and not 0-16), I could see potential for a third division championship in four years.

Likely overreacting to an opening week win over the Colts, I quickly assumed this team was back and ready to rack up double digit wins yet again. Two gut wrenching, frustrating, infuriating losses later, the Bears are 1-2 and likely headed to 1-3 with the Eagles looming next Sunday night. Does this team have another 8 game win streak in them?

I have to say, I still remain optimistic about this season. While beating the Eagles is not likely, the defense should come out fired up enough to keep it close. After that, the schedule leaves a lot of potential to make a run similar to 2005. A 4 game stretch of road games against Detroit and Atlanta followed by home games against Minnesota and Detroit should produce at least 3 wins. That would leave the team 4-4 after the first half. A home game against Tennessee and up to Green Bay should go 1-1 followed by a gimme win down in St. Louis. That is followed by a trip to the Metrodome and 3 home games against Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay. At worst, that should leave the Bears at 8-7 heading into their season finale at Houston.

9 wins will not be enough to get the Bears a wild card spot in this year’s NFC. It certainly will not be enough to top the Packers for the division crown. At the same time, I think I have been fairly conservative with this schedule. Philadelphia and Green Bay are the only teams left on the schedule that really scare me. Lovie has lived up to his promise to treat the Green Bay games as something special and has a 5-3 record to show for it. The Bears looked bad against Minnesota twice last year, but nearly won both games. Detroit and St. Louis are terrible. Atlanta’s looked good in two games, but couldn’t move the ball against Tampa Bay, who, of course, run a similar defense to the Bears. Tennessee and Jacksonville are similar to the Bears in that they like to keep scores low so anything could happen. Both games could easily go in the Bears’ favor or not. New Orleans and Houston are both mediocre teams with ok offenses and not so good defenses. I have to say, I will be disappointed if this team does not win at least 10 games. That could still not be enough for a playoff spot, but my hopes for the season have not been dashed yet.

Cubs Acquire Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin

I have to admit, I am having a hard time coming to terms with this one. It has been discussed to death everywhere so I will just sum up my primary concern: Harden is very good but rarely healthy.

The pieces the Cubs gave up were all superfluous. Sean Marshall is a solid starter at the age of 22 but unlikely to improve much from there. This team is already stocked with back of the rotation quality starters and is unlikely to miss one. The addition of Gaudin to the deal allows for a contingency if Harden does get injured. This is the part of the deal that I really like. If Harden goes down, the Cubs are right back to were they were in the rotation. All they really sacrificed was some organizational depth that wasn’t being taken advantage of anyways.

Matt Murton provides just enough bat to put in as a starting corner outfielder. I would have liked to have seen him get more of a chance with the Cubs, but both Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella were seemingly disinterested. With Kosoke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano firmly entrenched in the corners now and Piniella not using him as a bat off the bench, there was little reason to keep Murton anyways.

Eric Patterson would be a nice piece on the bench. He is a guy who can play second, the corner outfield spots and maybe even some CF in a real pinch. He should have a spot on the roster which is instead being wasted by Mike Fontenot. If Piniella’s not going to use him anyways, there is no good reason to just store him in Des Moines.

I know little about the catching prospect they traded. He was drafted last year but is struggling with the bat in AA and with Geovany Soto, hopefully, blocking him from a starting spot for several years anyways. Plus, with this organization’s inability to develop position players, it would have been highly unlikely he would have ever contributed to the major league team.

Jim Hendry said that this trade was a high risk, high reward. I see certainly see the high reward. If Harden can actually stay healthy this year and beyond, the Cubs will have a formidable 1, 2 punch in their rotation for the next few years (assuming the Cubs resign Harden after next season).

The only risk, though, is wasting some of the few trade chips they had available. With Piniella’s current roster management, Marshall was the only one of those traded who could have made an impact for this year or next. With Gaudin, Marshall has essentially already been replaced. We are left, then, with a trade of Harden for a couple of guys who would be lucky to be on the Cubs’ bench. I would rather take my chances with Harden in this case. Congratulations Jim Hendry, you pulled another one off.

What is the point of it all?

"If you're not first, you're last" - Ricky Bobby, "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby"

Quoting a Will Farrell movie character is not exactly the best way to build credibility for an argument. Still, it is a pretty good summation for this post. To what end should a sports team be constructed? It is a question that has been raised when reviewing the moves during the opening of the NBA free agency period.

The Washington Wizards started off by resigning Antawn Jamison and offering Gilbert Arenas a maximum value contract. Then, to the shock of many, Elton Brand and Baron Davis both opted out of the final year of their contracts with the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors respectively. Quickly, we learned the reason why. Within 24 hours, Davis had agreed to terms with the Clippers with Brand presumed to be resigning with the Clippers himself. Both seem to believe that teaming together will eventually lead to similar success experienced by the Boston Celtics over the last year. I strongly doubt that will be the case.

The Clippers, of course, have been a long running punchline within the sports world. Owned by notorious skinflint (by the standards set by other owners of professional sports franchises) Donald Sterling and run by the seemingly inept Elgin Baylor, they have made the playoffs 4 times with only 3 winning seasons since moving to Los Angeles in 1984. Repeatedly, they have failed to take advantage of their high lottery picks due to poor selection, refusal to pay, or bad luck.

Given that history, it is easy to understand the excitement of acquiring a player like Davis. Still, it is hard to see what benefit will come to both the Wizards and Clippers from their moves the last couple days. Both teams are still far from title contention.

The Wizards have been a playoff team for the last 4 seasons, getting out of the first round in the terrible Eastern Conference just once. They have built their roster around Arenas and Jamison and were fortuitous enough to add Caron Butler just as he began to blossom. All they have done is maintained the status quo at a staggering price. As much of the East improves around them, they seem to only hope to win as many games. Boston and Detroit are not going anywhere. Toronto and Orlando do not seem far away. Philadelphia, Miami, and Chicago all appear ready to make big moves over the next couple years. Washington will be left with their Big 3 and no room to add more.

The Clippers have at least improved the quality of the team. However, a playoff spot is far from guaranteed. They are not within sneezing distance of the top teams in the West. They will be left to battle with the likes of Portland, Sacramento, and Dallas for the right to be eliminated in the first round.

That leads to the question, what is the point of it all? If the ultimate goal of every sports organization is to build a team that can win a title, have the Clippers and Wizards made the right moves? It is easy to say no at this point. Both teams appear to have a peak of mediocrity in front of them for the next couple years. As well, they have severely hindered themselves from making the needed moves down the road by limiting their financial resources. The Wizards may have retained two of their best players, but they are still stuck with no answer for their gaping hole at center and a weak bench after Antonio Daniels. The Clippers little to offer after Brand, Davis, and center Chris Kaman. Some luck and good drafting could put these teams into title contention in the near future. My guess, though, is that they have both just set back any aspirations for a championship by at least 5 years.